490
FXUS66 KLOX 081747 AAA
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1047 AM PDT SAT AUG 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
08/104 AM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
COMMON OVER COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL VALLEYS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS, HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND EXPAND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS, WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BEACHES. OTHER THAN
A SMALL CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
08/825 AM.
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WEAKEN BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER
VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA. DANGEROUSLY
HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEY AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS, WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 103 DEGREES IN THE
COASTAL VALLEYS TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR VALLEY WILL
BE ABOUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 108 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME
HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN
MOUNTAINS, INTERIOR VALLEYS, AND FOOTHILLS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE REMAINING VALLEY, FOOTHILL, AND
MOUNTAIN AREA, AND SOME OF THE INTERIOR COASTAL SECTIONS. EVEN
THROUGH MOST IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES AND BEACHES ARE NOT
INCLUDED IN THESE ADVISORIES, RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF
THE AFTERNOON HEAT AND TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS AS THE ADDED
HUMIDITY WILL ADD SOME DISCOMFORT.
A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE SHAPE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS DECLINE SOME AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME COOLING OVER THE COMING DAYS AND
SHOULD BRING A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED LOW CLOUD FIELD TO THE COASTAL
AREAS.
DUE TO THE RIDGE POSITIONING, THE AREA WILL SIT ON THE FRINGE OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT MARGINAL
AMOUNTS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST
AN SLIGHT BUMP UP IN CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A 5-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, HIGHEST OVER THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND VENTURA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. IF THE STEERING FLOW BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME AREAS OR THE WEAK SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED, A FEW SHOWERS COULD STEER INTO THE COASTAL, VALLEY,
AND OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE
SHIFTS FOR DEVELOPMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT DRY LIGHTNING MAY RESULT, AND MAY CAUSE FIRE
STARTS, ADDING TO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. THE INCREASE IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE HUMIDITIES ALLOWING FOR WARMER
THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND ADD SOME HUMIDITY DURING THE
DAYTIME TO INCREASE HEAT IMPACTS.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING AN STRONGER SEA BREEZE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND POSSIBLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY, BASED ON PROJECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN COMBINATION WITH
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
08/235 AM.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO AT LEAST 592
DAM THROUGH FRIDAY, AND MAYBE EVEN LOWER. AT THE SAME TIME,
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BOTH TO THE NORTH AND THE EAST BECOMING
STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH DIRECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL RESPOND TO THIS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
EXTEND INTO THE VALLEYS. LOOK FOR SLOWER THAN NORMAL CLEARING AND
SOME WEST FACING BEACHES MAY SEE ONLY LIMITED CLEARING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPER MARINE LAYER, STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW,
AND FALLING HEIGHTS WILL BRING 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL LARGELY BE BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY, AND BY WEDNESDAY, VALLEY TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW DEGREES OF 90S. IN OTHER WORDS, FINALLY A "COOLER"
PERIOD OF TIME THIS SUMMER.
PWS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER. IN
COMBINATION WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL A LITTLE
MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY KEEPING THE LOW CHANCE (10 TO
15 PERCENT) OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING. BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST, EAST OF
WHICH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES COULD MODESTLY
INCREASE NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST WILL PRODUCE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY
AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY
SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
AVIATION
08/1746Z.
AT 1639Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD & KWJF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR/IFR CONDS TONIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPS WILL DISRUPT THE FORMATION OF MARINE LAYER. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN INTERMITTENT CIGS ESPECIALLY FOR KLAX, KSMO, &
KLGB. CIG HEIGHTS ACCURATE WITHIN +/- 200 FT OF CURRENT FORECAST.
KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. INTERMITTENT CIGS (007-010)
POSSIBLE 03Z-15Z SUN. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
08/819 AM.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, NORTHWEST WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS IN TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND AND TO THE SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY.
DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
08/819 AM.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT LOW-LYING BEACHES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING STARTING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
PREDICTED TIDE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 7.5 FEET ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
ABOUT 8 AND 10 PM EACH EVENING. THESE TIDES, COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL, COULD RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING OF SEA WATER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE OVER LOW-LYING
COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS PARKING LOTS, BEACHES, AND WALKWAYS.
BEACHES MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUES INCLUDE THOSE AROUND POINT DUME AND NEAR LONG BEACH.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 38-377-381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
88-342>345-348-349-351>353-356>358-367>376-378>380-548.
(SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...HALL/RORKE/LEWIS/LUND/COHEN
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SIRARD
BEACHES...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...KL/COHEN
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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