975
FXUS66 KLOX 090249
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
749 PM PDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
08/657 PM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT
SOME COASTAL AREAS AND COASTAL VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AWAY
FROM THE COAST, HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BEACHES. OTHER
THAN A SMALL CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
08/735 PM.
***UPDATE***
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PEAK HEIGHTS TODAY WERE AROUND 596 DM,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE LOW 90S TO OVER
100 DEGREES, AND IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS, READINGS WERE BETWEEN
104 TO 109 DEGREES (WARMEST OVER THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, CUYAMA
VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY). ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, THE MARINE LAYER KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S,
ALTHOUGH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THERE DUE TO WARM OCEAN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, EXCEPT FOR THE INTERIOR COAST OF SAN LUIS
COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MOST AREAS,
BUT THERE WILL BE LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND HEIGHTS DIMINISH OVER THE REGION, COMBINED
WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INTO MONDAY, AND MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING TUESDAY WITH ALL
LOCATIONS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 90S OR LOWER.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CLOCKWISE FLOW
AROUND THE FOUR-CORNERS RIDGE ALOFT, EFFECTIVELY DRAWING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL, A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. IT MAY RESULT IN SOME
INCREASED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS, ALONG WITH A 5-15 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
HIGHEST OVER THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
THERE IS ALSO A LOWER (5%) CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS, EXTENDING OUT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.
IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING WITH A RISK OF FIRE STARTS, ADDING TO THE ONGOING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. THE INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE
HUMIDITIES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND MORE HUMID DAYTIME
CONDITIONS, ADDING TO THE HEAT IMPACTS.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE STRONGER SEA BREEZES EACH
DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS, INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE STRONGEST ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS,
ALONG WITH THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TO
BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH THE ENHANCED
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION, THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED RISK OF
LARGE VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH WITH ANY NEW FIRES ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
08/122 PM.
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, AND POTENTIALLY LINGER
INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BOTH TO
THE NORTH AND THE EAST BECOMING STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH
DIRECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL RESPOND TO
THIS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO EXTEND INTO THE VALLEYS.
LOOK FOR SLOWER THAN NORMAL CLEARING AND SOME WEST FACING BEACHES
MAY SEE ONLY LIMITED CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPER MARINE LAYER, STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW,
AND FALLING HEIGHTS WILL BRING COOLING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL LARGELY BE BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
PWS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER. IN
COMBINATION WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL A LITTLE
MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY KEEPING THE LOW CHANCE (10 TO
15 PERCENT) OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING. IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME, MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST, EAST OF WHICH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVECTIVE CHANCES COULD MODESTLY INCREASE SOMETIME BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ARE STILL IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. LATEST
ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATE SHOWING A WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THAT
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH A SLIGHTLY UPTICK IN MUCAPE
VALUES. IF CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP, THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL, ADDING TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE DRY FUELS IN PLACE
AFTER THIS PROLONGED HEATWAVE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST WILL PRODUCE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY
AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY
SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
AVIATION
08/2339Z.
AT 1242Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD & KWJF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS AFTER 04Z SUN.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM SSTS WILL DISRUPT THE FORMATION
OF MARINE LAYER. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INTERMITTENT CIGS
ESPECIALLY FOR KLAX, KSMO, & KLGB. CIG HEIGHTS ACCURATE WITHIN
+/- 200 FT OF CURRENT FORECAST.
KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. INTERMITTENT CIGS (007-010)
POSSIBLE 04Z-15Z SUN. IFR CIGS MAY RETURN AROUND 10/05Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
08/727 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION DOWN SOUTH AND WEST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING (PZZ673/676). OTHERWISE, WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
08/114 PM.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT LOW-LYING BEACHES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING STARTING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED.
PREDICTED TIDE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 7.5 FEET ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
ABOUT 8 AND 10 PM EACH EVENING. THESE TIDES, COMBINED WITH A SMALL
INCREASE IN A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL, COULD RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING OF SEA WATER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE OVER LOW-LYING
COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS PARKING LOTS, BEACHES, AND WALKWAYS. BEACHES
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES
INCLUDE THOSE AROUND POINT DUME AND NEAR LONG BEACH.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 38-377-381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
88-342>345-348-349-351>353-356>358-367>376-378>380-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 349-350-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/HALL/CILIBERTI
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
BEACHES...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...KL/COHEN/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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