906
FXUS66 KLOX 242320
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
***UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE SECTIONS***
SYNOPSIS
24/805 AM.
VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK, WITH A HIGH RISK FOR
HEAT ILLNESS. PATCHY NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS, MAINLY NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
24/203 PM.
ALL SYSTEMS GO FOR THE HEAT THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TODAY, AND IN FACT SOME
AREAS ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. MOST AREAS TUESDAY WILL
WARM AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE TODAY AND AS MUCH AS 5
DEGREES. ANOTHER FACTOR WITH THIS HEAT WAVE IS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH WILL BE WARMING UP THROUGH THE WEEK, INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
IN SOME AREAS, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT TIME COOLING.
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP AS WELL,
BUT DELAYED BY A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN SAN LUIS OBISPO BY WEDNESDAY AND
SIMILAR ODDS FOR SANTA MARIA TO REACH 90. AND FOR INLAND SLO
COUNTY HIGHS BETWEEN 103 AND 108 ARE EXPECTED.
THE HEAT WAVE WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN A SLOW COOL
DOWN WILL BEGIN.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
24/200 PM.
INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE IS EXPECTED
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HOT SUNDOWNERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. A DECENT N TO S GRADIENT WILL SET UP
OVER THE COUNTY EACH EVENING AND GUSTY NORTH CANYON WINDS WILL
DEVELOP. THESE HOT WINDS COULD DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE AND COULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S UNTIL
ALMOST DAWN.
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FAVORING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY TO NEXT MONDAY, WITH HIGHS EITHER AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
24/2313Z.
AT 23Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2000 FEET AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY KPRB,
KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, AND KWJF.
CHANCES OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AT KSBP (60%) KSMX (90%),
KOXR (30%) KCMA (30%) KSMO (40%) KLAX (50%) KLGB (50%). MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING (PLUS OR MINUS 3 HOURS).
KLAX...THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS 10-16Z, WITH A 10%
CHANCE OF LIFR. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
24/1250 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PZZ673/676. FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTER
WATERS WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS (8-10 FEET).
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA
LEVELS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 30-40%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN A
60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
24/410 PM.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES,
VERY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS OF 12,000 TO 20,000 FEET, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS,
LOW HUMIDITIES, AND FUELS APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS WILL BRING THE HIGHEST
RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES WITH RAPID FIRE SPREAD IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF LA, VENTURA, SANTA
BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE CUYAMA
VALLEY, RESULTING IN THE RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO
20 PERCENT, POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES, AND LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS (STRONGEST IN THE
I-5 AND HIGHWAY 33 CORRIDORS). THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A
HISTORY OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
SIMILAR WEATHER AND FUEL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING THE BRIDGE, BOBCAT,
AND STATIONS FIRES.
WEAK TO MODERATE SUNDOWNER WINDS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BRING ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH TUESDAY AND SATURDAY EVENTS
LIKELY STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD. SUNDOWNER WIND EXPOSED AREAS COULD
SEE TEMPERATURES SOAR TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 DEGREES WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 25 PERCENT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES
38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 341-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR ZONES 342>345. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 345-353-375>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...RAT
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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