857
FXUS66 KLOX 250604
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1104 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
24/727 PM.
VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK, WITH A HIGH RISK FOR
HEAT ILLNESS. PATCHY NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO SOME COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT
COOLING IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IT WILL REMAIN WARM.
SHORT TERM (MON-THU)
24/826 PM.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES, WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS, AND REMAINS ON TRACK TO SHIFT
TO THE WEST STARTING TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY, THE CORE OF THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. MEANWHILE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN A LITTLE AND THE LOW-LEVEL PREVAILING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR VERY HOT CONDITIONS OVER
OUR AREA. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT 72 HOUR
PERIOD OF VERY HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. MOST AREAS 5 TO 10 MILES INLAND OF THE BEACHES WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100-110 RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANDOMLY FLUCTUATE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY, BUT WILL NOT
BE NOTICEABLE. EXPECTING SEVERAL CALENDAR DAY RECORDS TO FALL.
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AS WELL. CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, THE LIMITED RELIEF
OVERNIGHT, AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS HEAT EVENT, THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS CURRENTLY ISSUED LOOK WELL JUSTIFIED.
SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THROUGH
THE WEEK, AND SHOULD INCREASE SOME EACH NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG
ON THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL ON
TARGET TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE WINDS WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG, IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE THAT THEY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE MARINE LAYER UP THERE.
AS A RESULT, THE BIG TEMPERATURE JUMP WILL LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST, AND THE HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. HOW THE
MARINE LAYER WILL BEHAVE OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
REMAINS A BIG UNKNOWN. MODELS LIKE THE IDEA OF AN ENHANCED
COASTAL EDDY FORMING TONIGHT, AND THE CURRENT SBA-SAN GRADIENT
SUGGESTS THAT ONE WILL, BUT IT IS SO HARD TO DETERMINE HOW THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL RESPOND.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
24/200 PM.
INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE IS EXPECTED
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HOT SUNDOWNERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. A DECENT N TO S GRADIENT WILL SET UP
OVER THE COUNTY EACH EVENING AND GUSTY NORTH CANYON WINDS WILL
DEVELOP. THESE HOT WINDS COULD DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE AND COULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S UNTIL
ALMOST DAWN.
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FAVORING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY TO NEXT MONDAY, WITH HIGHS EITHER AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
25/0549Z.
AT 0508Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2000 FEET AND 31 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY KPRB,
KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, AND KWJF.
FOR KSBP AND KSMX, TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/-
2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST.
CHANCES OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AT KOXR (30%) KCMA (30%)
KSMO (40%) KLAX (50%) KLGB (50%). MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
(PLUS OR MINUS 3 HOURS).
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF 3SM BKN005
CONDS 11Z-16Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.
MARINE
24/911 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS, INITIALLY
DUE TO SHORT PERIOD COMBINED SEAS, BUT APPROACHING 8 TO 10 FEET
BY THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SCA WINDS. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
24/410 PM.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES,
VERY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS OF 12,000 TO 20,000 FEET, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS,
LOW HUMIDITIES, AND FUELS APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS WILL BRING THE HIGHEST
RISK OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES WITH RAPID FIRE SPREAD IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF LA, VENTURA, SANTA
BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE CUYAMA
VALLEY, RESULTING IN THE RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO
20 PERCENT, POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES, AND LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS (STRONGEST IN THE
I-5 AND HIGHWAY 33 CORRIDORS). THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A
HISTORY OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
SIMILAR WEATHER AND FUEL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING THE BRIDGE, BOBCAT,
AND STATIONS FIRES.
WEAK TO MODERATE SUNDOWNER WINDS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BRING ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH TUESDAY AND SATURDAY EVENTS
LIKELY STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD. SUNDOWNER WIND EXPOSED AREAS COULD
SEE TEMPERATURES SOAR TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 DEGREES WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 25 PERCENT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES
38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 341-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR ZONES 342>345. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 345-353-375>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RK/MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...RAT/CILIBERTI
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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