173
FXUS66 KLOX 260158
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
658 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
25/657 PM.
VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK, WITH A HIGH RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. PATCHY NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO SOME COASTAL AREAS.
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WARM.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
25/159 PM.
SO FAR TODAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS LA/VENTURA COAST AND VALLEYS
HAVE TRENDED SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, AND IN SOME AREAS HIGHS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. HOWEVER, INTERIOR AREAS AND THE CENTRAL COAST ARE
WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING
TOMORROW THEN STARTING TO LEVEL OFF THURSDAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE ONSHORE
FLOW TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EVERYWHERE, INCLUDING THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL
AGAIN PUSH TEMPS HIGHER.
A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY NOW WITH THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST AS
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM ISELLE OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST. CAN'T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER, THOUGH MOST OF THE UNSTABLE AIR
WILL ACTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE BAY AREA. THE INCREASING CLOUDS
COULD CUT INTO SOME OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, THOUGH
INCREASING HUMIDITY MAKE IT FEEL JUST AS UNCOMFORTABLE.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY:
DOWNTOWN LA......102 IN 1926
LAX..............84 IN 1981
LONG BEACH.......103 IN 1981
HAWTHORNE........87 IN 1015
SANTA MONICA.....83 IN 2005
BURBANK..........107 IN 1981
VAN NUYS.........107 IN 2010
WOODLAND HILLS...115 IN 1985
PALMDALE.........108 IN 1931
LANCASTER........107 IN 2010
CAMARILLO........85 IN 1931
OXNARD...........85 IN 1931
SANTA BARBARA....85 IN 1985
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
25/208 PM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 3-6 DEGREE COOLING TREND
SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
POSITION OR STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH IN AZ. HOWEVER, THE HIGH
DOES WEAKEN QUITE A BIT SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THE COOLING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AT THAT POINT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION
26/0156Z.
AT 0017Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS NEAR 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 34 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPRB, KSBA, KBUR,
KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
FOR KSMX AND KSBP, THERE IS 30% CHANCE OF NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT. IF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS DO OCCUR, THE TIMING COULD BE OFF
BY AT LEAST +/- 2 HOURS FROM TAF TIMES. CIGS AT KSBP COULD OCCUR
FOR ONLY 2-3 HOURS.
FOR KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX AND KLGB, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS 08Z-17Z. IF CIGS OCCUR, THE TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS FROM TAF TIMES.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS 08Z-17Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
25/1232 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTER WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS WILL
HOVER NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS WILL
APPROACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE THIS WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN A 60-80%
CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
BEACHES
25/1232 PM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORMS ISELLE AND JULIO WILL
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND
14 SECONDS CAN BE EXPECTED. PRODUCING ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES. THEREFORE, A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM
500 AM WEDNESDAY TROUGH 11 PM THURSDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 341-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
342>345. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
345-353-375>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT/CILIBERTI
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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