154
FXUS66 KLOX 260348
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
848 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
25/657 PM.
VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK, WITH A HIGH RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. PATCHY NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO SOME COASTAL AREAS.
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WARM.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
25/847 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH WEAK ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, AND
SOME NORTHERLY FLOW INFLUENCE WILL MAINTAIN OUR EXTREME HEAT EVENT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY IN A
RANDOM FASHION, BUT IT WILL BE HARD TO NOTICE. EXPECTING SEVERAL
CALENDAR DAY RECORDS TO FALL. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AS
WELL. CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, THE
LIMITED RELIEF OVERNIGHT, AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS HEAT
EVENT, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE LOCKED IN WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED.
SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE WINDS JUST RECENTLY STRENGTHEN MORE
THAN EXPECTED, AS THE SBA-SMX PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASED A WHOLE
MILLIBAR IN THE LAST HOUR TO -4.8. ADDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT AS A RESULT. WHILE THE WINDS WILL RETURN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY, NOT EXPECTING A WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT.
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND DENSE FOG IN POCKETS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. COVERAGE
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PEAKS
AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK. SOME NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
HILLS ABOVE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BRING A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED. VERY UNSURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTY COASTS THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY HOWEVER, A
STRONG EDDY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
MOST MODEL PROJECTIONS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA SOMETIME FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE VAST DIFFERENCES WITH
EXACTLY WHERE IN THE STATE. ON TOP OF THAT, NONE OF THE
PROJECTIONS THAT SHOW RAIN SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SHOWERS.
THIS ADDS UP TO A GENERAL 5 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE ANYWHERE OVER
THE AREA.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
25/208 PM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 3-6 DEGREE COOLING TREND
SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
POSITION OR STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH IN AZ. HOWEVER, THE HIGH
DOES WEAKEN QUITE A BIT SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THE COOLING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AT THAT POINT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION
26/0156Z.
AT 0017Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS NEAR 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 34 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPRB, KSBA, KBUR,
KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
FOR KSMX AND KSBP, THERE IS 30% CHANCE OF NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT. IF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS DO OCCUR, THE TIMING COULD BE OFF
BY AT LEAST +/- 2 HOURS FROM TAF TIMES. CIGS AT KSBP COULD OCCUR
FOR ONLY 2-3 HOURS.
FOR KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX AND KLGB, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS 08Z-17Z. IF CIGS OCCUR, THE TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS FROM TAF TIMES.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS 08Z-17Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
25/829 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS WILL HOVER NEAR
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK, INCLUDING HAZARDOUS STEEP SEAS WITH
BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING MOST AFTERNOON TO EVENING PERIODS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STEEP CHOPPY SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN A 60-80% CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME. CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
BEACHES
25/1232 PM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORMS ISELLE AND JULIO WILL
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND
14 SECONDS CAN BE EXPECTED. PRODUCING ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES. THEREFORE, A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM
500 AM WEDNESDAY TROUGH 11 PM THURSDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 341-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
342>345. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
345-353-375>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RK/MW
AVIATION...RAT/CILIBERTI
MARINE...CILIBERTI
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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