388
FXUS66 KLOX 261646
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
946 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
26/945 AM.
VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK, WITH A HIGH RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
26/945 AM.
***UPDATE***
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN TERMS OF THE HEAT. NO CHANGES
(CANCELLATIONS OR EXTENSIONS) PLANNED WITH THE HEAT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES. SIGNIFICANT RELIEF STILL ON TARGET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE EXTRA CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF THEIR
TROPICAL ORIGIN AND LIKELY EMBEDDED BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. NOT ONLY
THAT, BUT EVEN IF TEMPERATURES LOWER A LITTLE, THE MUGGINESS
FEELING WILL RISE.
THE EVOLVING PIECE OF THE FORECAST INVOLVED THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT SATELLITE THIS MORNING, TWO
FEATURES STAND OUT. FIRST, THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE OFF OF BAJA
ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM ISELLE (EE-SELL). THIS
MOISTURE WILL PUSH OVER CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOCUSED ON CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
SECOND, AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA IS STEADILY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY WEAKEN, BUT THE CIRCULATION AT ITS HEART
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT A SHOWER
ANYWHERE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SO 20% POPS WERE ADDED. WHILE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF LIGHT BIG-DROP
SHOWERS SCATTERED AROUND OUR AREA, AMOUNTING TO VERY LITTLE. THERE
IS HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE OF A HEAVIER CELL OR TWO AND A
THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST INSTABILITY DOES NOT LINE UP WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE, BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY ALL CLEAR WHEN WE ARE LOOKING AT
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND EXTREME HEAT. THIS IS A CLASSIC LOW CHANCE,
POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH WEAKER THAN NORMAL ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE EAST AND ACTUAL (WEAK) OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
THE MARINE IS VERY SHALLOW AND WILL NOT MAKE MUCH INLAND
PENETRATION AT ALL. MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL BE LARGELY ABSENT
FROM ALL AREAS TODAY - EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST. MOST CST/VLY TEMPS
WILL END UP 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER NORMAL WITH VLY TEMPS IN THE 100
TO 112 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS A DANGEROUS HEAT EVENT AND ALMOST
ALL AREAS ARE UNDER EITHER AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING OR A HEAT
ADVISORY. PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT LAXNPWLOX FOR ALL DETAILS.
HERE ARE SOME RECORDS AND TODAY'S FORECAST HIGHS:
HERE IS A LIST OF THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY
(AUGUST 26TH):
DOWNTOWN LA.......98 IN 1981 - FORECAST HIGH = 101
LAX...............94 IN 1985 - FORECAST HIGH = 86
LONG BEACH.......100 IN 1981 - FORECAST HIGH = 99
HAWTHORNE.........88 IN 2015 - FORECAST HIGH = 93
SANTA MONICA......85 IN 2011 - FORECAST HIGH = 87
BURBANK..........111 IN 1944 - FORECAST HIGH = 105
VAN NUYS.........105 IN 2010 - FORECAST HIGH = 107
WOODLAND HILLS...109 IN 1981 - FORECAST HIGH = 111
PALMDALE.........107 IN 2011 - FORECAST HIGH = 105
LANCASTER........106 IN 1950 - FORECAST HIGH = 105
CAMARILLO.........86 IN 2015 - FORECAST HIGH = 105
OXNARD............86 IN 2015 - FORECAST HIGH = 90
SANTA BARBARA.....86 IN 1977 - FORECAST HIGH = 85
SANTA MARIA.......92 IN 1925 - FORECAST HIGH = 86
PASO ROBLES......106 IN 2017 - FORECAST HIGH = 107
THURSDAY'S FORECAST IS AN INTERESTING ONE AS A GRIP OF MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WILL MOVE OVER THE
STATE SOMETIME FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE BIG
FORECAST PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS TREMENDOUS DISAGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS. THURSDAY'S HIGHS COULD BE
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FCST IF THE THICKEST CLOUDS MOVE OVER SRN
CA DURING THE LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVERSELY MAX
TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST IF THE CLOUDS MISS OUR
PORTION OF THE STATE OR GO OVERHEAD IN THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER FROM THESE
CLOUDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COMPROMISE. THE COOLING MAY NOT FEEL
MUCH BETTER AS THE EXTRA MOISTURE WILL MAKE THINGS MORE HUMID.
ON FRIDAY A TROF WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST AND WILL PUSH THE
UPPER HIGH AWAY FROM THE STATE. HGTS WILL FALL A FEW DAM AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BIT. LOOK FOR A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING IN MOST AREAS (A FEW MORE OVER SLO COUNTY WHERE THE
AFFECTS OF THE TROF WILL BE GREATEST). THAT SAID IF THURSDAY'S MAX
TEMPS ARE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUD COVER FRIDAY'S SUNNY SKIES WILL
THEN BRING WARMING. WITH MAX TEMPS STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 8 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THE CURRENT SUITE
OF HEAT PRODUCTS LOOKS GOOD TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
26/304 AM.
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A MUCH WELCOMED COOLING TREND. THE TROF
WILL SWING INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE SHUNTED
ALL THE WAY TO ARKANSAS. HGTS WILL FALL TO 587 DAM. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE SOME AND THE MARINE LAYER ALONG WITH MORNING MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL MAKE A COMEBACK. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF
COOLING SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY. VLY TEMPS IN ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE THE GREATEST COOLING WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. MOST HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
THE TROF SHARPENS SOME ON MONDAY LOWERING HGTS TO ABOUT 585 DAM.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF COOLING WITH MOST AREAS COMING IN 3 TO 6
DEGREES UNDER NORMAL. LOOK FOR VLYS TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S.
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS TROFFING WILL HOLD SWAY
OVER THE WEST COAST.
THE EC-AI MDL DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAT IN THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST SEPTEMBER 4TH.
AVIATION
26/1638Z.
AT 1600Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 32 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT ANY STRATUS FORMATION.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
26/703 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS WILL HOVER NEAR
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK, INCLUDING HAZARDOUS STEEP SEAS WITH
BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING MOST AFTERNOON TO EVENING PERIODS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STEEP CHOPPY SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY
THEN A 60-80% CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME. CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
26/703 AM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORMS ISELLE AND JULIO WILL
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
SWELL HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. PRODUCING ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. THEREFORE, A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM THURSDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
341-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
342>345. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
345-353-375>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE/RK
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...CILIBERTI/RAT
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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