311
FXUS66 KLOX 262038
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
138 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
26/137 PM.
VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK, WITH A HIGH RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
26/125 PM.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN TERMS OF THE HEAT. THE ONE
CHANGE WAS EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY ON THE CENTRAL COAST
FORWARD 24 HOURS SO THAT NOW ALL OF OUR HEAT ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS END AT THE SAME TIME (8PM FRIDAY). OTHERWISE, NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED OR EXPECTED. THE EXTRA CLOUDS FORECASTED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE
TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF THEIR TROPICAL ORIGIN AND LIKELY EMBEDDED
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. NOT ONLY THAT, EVEN IF TEMPERATURES LOWER A
LITTLE, THE MUGGINESS FEELING WILL RISE WITH THE INCREASING
HUMIDITIES. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO LOWER ON SATURDAY
BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH SIGNIFICANT RELIEF STILL ON TARGET
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MENTIONED EARLIER TODAY
REMAINS ON THE TABLE, BUT IT IS A COMPLICATED AND LOW-CONFIDENCE
SITUATION. TWO MAIN FACTORS ARE IN PLAY. FIRST, THERE IS A LOT OF
MOISTURE OFF THE BAJA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS TROPICAL
STORM ISELLE (EE- SELL). AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
PUSH THIS MOISTURE WILL OVER CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOCUSED ON CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. SECOND, AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS MOVING
FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO AND NORTH CROSSING INTO THE UNITED STATES.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BE A SOURCE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WHEREVER IT ENDS UP GOING. PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER, EXPECTING
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE MOST OF
THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYTHING, THESE SHOWERS COULD POP UP
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AS A RESULT, 15-20% POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, FOR THE GENERAL POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT BIG-DROP
SHOWERS. WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE, HOT AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE,
AND A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HOWEVER, THERE IS A 5-10%
CHANCE OF A HEAVIER CELL AND OR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THIS IS A
CLASSIC LOW CHANCE, POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO.
SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK. THE WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN
LAST NIGHT, BUT LOOK TO RAMP UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE,
THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN START
REFORMING AND EXPANDING ON SATURDAY.
NOTE: CLIMATE RECORDS ARE NOW AVAILABLE ON OUR NEW CLIMATE SITE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WRH/CLIPLOT_RECORDS?WFO=LOX
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
26/134 PM.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SHOVE OUR HEAT-INDUCING
HIGH TO THE EAST, AND STRENGTHEN ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THIS SHOULD
ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO QUICK DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY, BRINGING MUCH RELIEF TO THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY REFORM AND BLANKET ALL COASTAL AREAS AND SOME VALLEYS.
THE ONE WRINKLE TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS MOVING OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT WEEK
WINDOW OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN
RATHER CONSISTENTLY BULLISH ON A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
PEERING INTO THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY
(ALBEIT SLIM) OF SOLUTIONS ARE DRY WITH ABSOLUTELY NO RAIN AS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE STAYS OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID, 10 TO 30
PERCENT OF THE PROJECTIONS SO SOME LIGHT RAIN (DEPENDING ON WHICH
COUNTY YOU ARE IN), WITH A 0 TO 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. BECAUSE OF THE LOW PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN,
THIS IS NOT SOMETHING TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT YET, BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
AVIATION
26/1638Z.
AT 1600Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 32 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT ANY STRATUS FORMATION.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
26/1230 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING ALONG WITH STEEP, SHORT
PERIOD SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. STEEP,
SHORT-PERIOD, SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. STEEP, SHORT-PERIOD, SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK.
BEACHES
26/137 PM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORMS ISELLE AND JULIO WILL
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
SWELL HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. PRODUCING ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. THEREFORE, A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM THURSDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
341>345-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
345-353-375>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RK
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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