208
FXUS66 KLOX 270557
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1057 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
26/137 PM.
VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK, WITH A HIGH RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
26/752 PM.
***UPDATE***
IT WAS ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
NOTE: CLIMATE RECORDS ARE NOW AVAILABLE ON OUR NEW CLIMATE SITE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WRH/CLIPLOT_RECORDS?WFO=LOX
PRELIMINARY RECORDS:
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86 DEGREES WAS SET AT SANTA BARBARA
AIRPORT CA TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 86 DEGREES SET IN 1977.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS SET AT DOWNTOWN LOS
ANGELES TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 98 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 106 DEGREES WAS SET AT PASO ROBLES
AIRPORT CA TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 106 DEGREES SET IN
2017.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES WAS SET AT CAMARILLO AIRPORT
CA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 DEGREES SET IN 2015.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 107 DEGREES WAS SET AT LANCASTER TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 106 DEGREES SET IN 1950.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 111 DEGREES WAS SET AT WOODLAND HILLS
CA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 109 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES WAS SET AT NWS OXNARD TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 DEGREES SET IN 2015.
TROUGH INTERACTION WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISELLE WILL FEED
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UP TO 25% ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FOR THURSDAY
DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND CAMS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TOMORROW CLOSER TO THE COAST,
AND FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXCEPT ACROSS SLO WHERE
IT COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER (3 TO 6 DEGREES) WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS. SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, & BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN TERMS OF THE HEAT. THE ONE
CHANGE WAS EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY ON THE CENTRAL COAST
FORWARD 24 HOURS SO THAT NOW ALL OF OUR HEAT ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS END AT THE SAME TIME (8PM FRIDAY). OTHERWISE, NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED OR EXPECTED. THE EXTRA CLOUDS FORECASTED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE
TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF THEIR TROPICAL ORIGIN AND LIKELY EMBEDDED
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. NOT ONLY THAT, EVEN IF TEMPERATURES LOWER A
LITTLE, THE MUGGINESS FEELING WILL RISE WITH THE INCREASING
HUMIDITIES. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO LOWER ON SATURDAY
BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH SIGNIFICANT RELIEF STILL ON TARGET
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MENTIONED EARLIER TODAY
REMAINS ON THE TABLE, BUT IT IS A COMPLICATED AND LOW-CONFIDENCE
SITUATION. TWO MAIN FACTORS ARE IN PLAY. FIRST, THERE IS A LOT OF
MOISTURE OFF THE BAJA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS TROPICAL
STORM ISELLE (EE- SELL). AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
PUSH THIS MOISTURE WILL OVER CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FOCUSED ON CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. SECOND, AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS MOVING
FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO AND NORTH CROSSING INTO THE UNITED STATES.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS US OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BE A SOURCE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WHEREVER IT ENDS UP GOING. PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER, EXPECTING
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE MOST OF
THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYTHING, THESE SHOWERS COULD POP UP
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AS A RESULT, 15-20% POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, FOR THE GENERAL POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT BIG-DROP
SHOWERS. WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE, HOT AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE,
AND A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HOWEVER, THERE IS A 5-10%
CHANCE OF A HEAVIER CELL AND OR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THIS IS A
CLASSIC LOW CHANCE, POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO.
SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK. THE WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN
LAST NIGHT, BUT LOOK TO RAMP UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE,
THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN START
REFORMING AND EXPANDING ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
26/134 PM.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SHOVE OUR HEAT-INDUCING
HIGH TO THE EAST, AND STRENGTHEN ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THIS SHOULD
ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO QUICK DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY, BRINGING MUCH RELIEF TO THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY REFORM AND BLANKET ALL COASTAL AREAS AND SOME VALLEYS.
THE ONE WRINKLE TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS MOVING OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT WEEK
WINDOW OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN
RATHER CONSISTENTLY BULLISH ON A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
PEERING INTO THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY
(ALBEIT SLIM) OF SOLUTIONS ARE DRY WITH ABSOLUTELY NO RAIN AS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE STAYS OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID, 10 TO 30
PERCENT OF THE PROJECTIONS SO SOME LIGHT RAIN (DEPENDING ON WHICH
COUNTY YOU ARE IN), WITH A 0 TO 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. BECAUSE OF THE LOW PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN,
THIS IS NOT SOMETHING TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT YET, BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
AVIATION
27/0556Z.
AT 0555Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS 2000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 33 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT ANY STRATUS FORMATION.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF LOW CIGS FORMING ALONG SOME OF
THE COASTLINE, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. IF
RESTRICTIONS WERE TO OCCUR, LIFR ARE EXPECTED.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
26/759 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH MONDAY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING ALONG WITH STEEP, SHORT
PERIOD SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. STEEP, SHORT-
PERIOD, SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. STEEP, SHORT-PERIOD, SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK.
BEACHES
26/824 PM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM POST-TROPICAL STORM ISELLE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
SWELL HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 11-12 SECONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED, PRODUCING ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG SOUTH- FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. THEREFORE,
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM THURSDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
341>345-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
345-353-375>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RK/DB
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...RAT/CILIBERTI
BEACHES...RAT/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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