994
FXUS66 KLOX 271730
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
27/244 AM.
VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK, WITH A HIGH RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
27/314 AM.
DANGEROUSLY HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA FROM DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEMS OFF MEXICO SO THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA, THOUGH
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE SINCE ANY
DROPS WILL BE EVAPORATING QUICKLY THROUGH THEIR PATH TO THE
SURFACE. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER, THOUGH
HI RES MODELS ARE FOCUSING MOST OF THE INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH
IN THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL REMAIN HOT, BUT THE
ADDITION OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DOES INTRODUCE
AN ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY TODAY AS
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY PEAKING TODAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE
INDICATING 1-6 DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY, WITH THE BIGGER
DECREASES ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WHILE COASTAL AREAS ACTUALLY RISE
1-3 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. THIS IS A FAIRLY COMMON SCENARIO WHEN
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING A HEAT WAVE SO
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK WITH THE TEMPS. WITH LESS CLOUDS LIKELY FRIDAY SOME REBOUND
IN TEMPS INLAND IS LIKELY, WHILE COASTAL AREAS START TO COOL AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
27/331 AM.
A STEADY COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN NO LATER THAN SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DECREASING BY ABOUT
5 DEGREES EACH DAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PAC NW. BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING WEST OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO THAT COULD INTRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SHOWER
CHANCES LOCALLY, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
27/1729Z.
AT 1620Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 31 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF FORECASTS. THROUGH THE
PERIOD, A BKN-OVC100-150 DECK WILL CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILTY OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN A 10-15% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. BKN-OVC100-150 DECK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS. THERE
IS 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE (30% CHANCE) THROUGH 19Z, THEN NO SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. BKN-OVC100-150 DECK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS. THERE
IS 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
27/705 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH MONDAY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING ALONG WITH STEEP, SHORT
PERIOD SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. STEEP, SHORT-PERIOD,
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN A 50-70% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STEEP, SHORT-PERIOD, SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-SURFACE LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
BEACHES
27/705 AM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM POST-TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SWELL HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF 11-12 SECONDS CAN BE EXPECTED, PRODUCING ELEVATED
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF
VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. THEREFORE, A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
341>345-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
345-353-375>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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