247
FXUS66 KLOX 272122
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
222 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
27/217 PM.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RISKS OF
LIGHTNING, FIRE STARTS, AND ERRATIC WINDS. TEMPERATURE AND
MOISTURE RELIEF WILL START OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL INCREASE
AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
27/211 PM.
WHAT A DIFFICULT FORECAST THANKS TO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ISELLE (EE-SELL) WHICH ARE NOW UPON US. THERE ARE SO MANY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND OUTCOMES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
LETS START OFF WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PIECE. FOR THE
REST OF TODAY, SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF ALL FOUR OF OUR COUNTIES. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 0.10 INCHES. WE HAD 8 LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND
VANDENBERG THIS MORNING, BUT NOT MUCH SINCE THEN. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL CHANCE ANYWHERE TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND ANY OF OUR MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST A SHIFT NORTHWARD AND DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
OVERALL TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE, CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. FOR TOMORROW, A
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF SANTA YNEZ. AS A POSSIBLE GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE,
THIS INTERACTION IS CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE OVER
THERE SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS (AN INDICATOR OF
CONVECTION) WITH THE LIGHTNING-CAST ALGORITHM SHOWING A 50%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A 10-30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY, DECREASING TO THE SOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WINDS, WHICH
POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR FIRE STARTS AND GROWTH. THE RISK FOR
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS NOT ZERO BUT IT IS LOW. THE
MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY AND BE
GONE BY SATURDAY.
NEXT UP...THE TEMPERATURE BIT. THE CLOUDS WREAKED HAVOC ON THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ARE
DOWN 5-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND MUCH OF SANTA BARBARA
AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES ARE DOWN 15-25 DEGREES (EXCEPT FOR
5-10 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER SW SANTA BARBARA COUNTY). DESPITE
THE NUMERIC COOL DOWN, MOST WILL AGREE THAT IT STILL FEELS HOT AS
DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION, WHICH IS
SIMILAR TO FLORIDA RIGHT NOW. WITH THE NEW TROPICAL AIRMASS,
OVERNIGHT LOWS LAST NIGHT WERE SWELTERING. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL
BE DIFFERENT, CANNOT SEE A REASON FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
TO EXPERIENCE SOMETHING SIMILAR AGAIN TONIGHT. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE A MUDDLED MESS. FAIRLY CONFIDENCE THAT
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WILL SEE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
THEREFORE SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN TODAY. FOR SANTA
BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, THE TRENDS COULD BE UP 10 OR
DOWN 10 DEPENDING ON HOW THAT MOISTURE PLUME AND ANY CONVECTION
SETS UP. BECAUSE OF ALL OF THESE COMPLEXITIES AND UNCERTAINTIES,
WE WILL NOT BE CHANGING ANY OF THE HEAT WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES
TODAY, BUT MIGHT NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOMORROW. AT THIS
POINT, THE CHANCE OF EXTENDING ANY HEAT SEEING ANY NEED TO EXTEND
ANYTHING BEYOND TOMORROW.
THAT GETS US THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND, THE AIRMASS
WILL DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP ENOUGH TO CROSS UNDER NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MAKE A RETURN, BUT EXACT COVERAGE IS ALWAYS A TOUGH
CALL. SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND
ADVISORY MORE FAVORABLE THAN NOT.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
27/215 PM.
MONDAY LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS, AND TYPICALLY BREEZY MOUNTAIN WINDS. AFTER
THAT...ANYTHING GOES. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY FORMING OFF THE
BAJA COAST WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM TO
THE NORTH AND INTERACT WITH THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOUT HALF OF THE PROJECTIONS RESULT
IN SOME OF THIS MOISTURE STREAMING OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA,
WITH ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS RESULTING IN RAIN. ABOUT 5%
OF THE EARLIER PROJECTIONS SHOWED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE MOVING OVER, BUT THAT SIGNAL IS LARGELY GONE IN THE
LATEST PROJECTIONS. WITH ALL THAT STATED, THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
IS FOR SOME INCREASED MUGGINESS AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THAT IS
ABOUT IT, WITH INTEL ABOUT THE REST OF THE RISKS IN A CLEAR WAIT
AND SEE HOLDING PATTERN.
AVIATION
27/1729Z.
AT 1620Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 31 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF FORECASTS. THROUGH THE
PERIOD, A BKN-OVC100-150 DECK WILL CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILTY OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN A 10-15% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. BKN-OVC100-150 DECK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS. THERE
IS 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE (30% CHANCE) THROUGH 19Z, THEN NO SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. BKN-OVC100-150 DECK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS. THERE
IS 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
27/1153 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS FOR ALL OF THE OUTER WATERS. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
AROUND POINT CONCEPTION. STEEP, SHORT-PERIOD, SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, APPROACHING SCA LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STEEP, SHORT-PERIOD, SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 30-40%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN A 50-70%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STEEP, SHORT-PERIOD, SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AND CLOUD-TO-SURFACE LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.
BEACHES
27/705 AM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM POST-TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SWELL HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF 11-12 SECONDS CAN BE EXPECTED, PRODUCING ELEVATED
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF
VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. THEREFORE, A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
27/221 PM.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES, VERY DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITIES (FOCUSED FRIDAY) WITH
FUELS APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS WILL BRING THE HIGHEST RISK OF LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRES WITH RAPID SPREAD IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, AS WELL AS THE CUYAMA VALLEY, RESULTING IN THE RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTIEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR MOUNTAIN AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL STILL BRING
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO FAR INTERIOR AREAS.
MODERATE SUNDOWNER WINDS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BRING
ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, LIKELY PEAKING SATURDAY WITH WINDS
15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH (LOCALLY UP TO 55 MPH NEAR GAVIOTA
AND REFUGIO).
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WILL BRING
A 15 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING. HIGHEST
CHANCES EXIST FRIDAY OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
341>345-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 340>345. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
353-375>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RK
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RAT
FIRE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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