105
FXUS66 KLOX 281039
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
339 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
27/217 PM.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RISKS OF
LIGHTNING, FIRE STARTS, AND ERRATIC WINDS. TEMPERATURE AND
MOISTURE RELIEF WILL START OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL INCREASE
AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
28/328 AM.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS REMNANTS OF ISELLE
STILL LINGER OFFSHORE. WHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION DROPPED OFF
OVERNIGHT OVER LAND, THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL FIRING OFF NEAR
WHERE WHAT'S LEFT OF ISELLE ROUGHLY 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LA.
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS OR LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. AND EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE SOUTH OF THERE IS
STARTING TO DECREASE, PW'S ARE STILL OVER 1.5" LOCALLY SO THE
MUGGY-NESS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY. AND IN FACT,
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION SHOULD REBOUND
BACK TO VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND MORE SUNSHINE. HELPING THAT CAUSE WILL BE THE VERY WARM
MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AS OF 3AM.
THERE IS GOOD NEWS THOUGH AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
SUNDAY OR MONDAY MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HUMIDITIES MUCH LOWER AS WELL.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
28/338 AM.
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FAVORING A TROUGH PATTERN ALONG
THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SOME HEIGHT RISES ARE LIKELY BY
MID WEEK LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND WED-FRI. MOST OF THE
PROJECTIONS KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK, AT MOST MAYBE 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, THOUGH THERE IS MAYBE A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGHS 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A RETURN TO MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS IS LESS
LIKELY THAN WHAT MODELS SHOWED YESTERDAY AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
OFF MEXICO GETS STEERED WELL TO THE WEST.
AVIATION
28/0518Z.
AT 0510Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 600 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 32 C.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD EXPECTING BKN/OVC150.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. BKN/OVC DECK ABOVE 10KFT THRU
AT LEAST 28/18Z. ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 7 KTS.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. BKN/OVC DECK ABOVE 10KFT THRU
AT LEAST 28/18Z.
MARINE
27/744 PM.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WITH SHORT-PERIOD
CHOPPY SEAS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL REACH INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON/EVE). LOCAL GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KT NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING THE THREAT
OF ERRATIC WINDS, LOCALIZED ROUGH SEAS AND CLOUD-TO-SURFACE
LIGHTNING.
FOR NEXT WEEK, MOST WATERS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK BUT SIGNAL ISN'T STRONG, MODERATE AT BEST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
341>345-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 340>345-353-375>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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