124
FXUS66 KLOX 281949
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1249 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
28/951 AM.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH RISKS OF LIGHTNING, FIRE
STARTS, AND ERRATIC WINDS. TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE RELIEF WILL
START OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY,
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
28/951 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS STAYED TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FOUR COUNTIES SO FAR THIS MORNING. WE
ARE WATCHING AN ENHANCEMENT JUST OFF THE COAST THAT COULD CLIP
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A STILL TROPICAL AIRMASS, THE
RISKS WILL TRANSITION TO THE MORE TRADITIONAL MOUNTAIN AND DESERTS
AREAS. NONE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW ANYTHING FORMING OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS, LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TO KICK IT OFF, BUT ALL THE OTHER INGREDIENTS ARE THERE TO AT
LEAST MAINTAIN A LOW RISK. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FORM, THE IMPACTS
WILL BE MORE GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS, WITH LESS CONCERN FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
ON THE TEMPERATURE SIDE OF THE HOUSE, IT WAS STILL VERY WARM LAST
NIGHT THANKS TO THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS, BUT LESS WARM THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT THANKS TO LESS CLOUD COVER. AT 9AM, THE TEMPERATURE
TRENDS HAVE FLIPPED FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW 24 HOURS AGO TO 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE THANKS TO THE FAR MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. EXPECTING
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE, WITH A HOT AND MUGGY DAY ON
TAP. THE CURRENT SUITE OF HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY AS A RESULT.
THE BIG DECISION FOR TODAY WILL BE WHAT TO DO WITH TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BE DOWN FROM TODAY. IT WILL BE A
BIG DROP FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. FOR LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, THAT DROP WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE,
WITH THE BIG DROP ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY. AS SUCH, WILL BE
CONSIDERING HEAT ADVISORIES TO COVER THE PERIOD FROM AFTER THE
CURRENT WARNINGS EXPIRE TO THE END OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE
AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE ADVISORIES ARE THE VALLEYS AND
INLAND COASTAL AREAS, BUT WILL FLESH THAT OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS REMNANTS OF ISELLE
STILL LINGER OFFSHORE. WHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION DROPPED OFF
OVERNIGHT OVER LAND, THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL FIRING OFF NEAR
WHERE WHAT'S LEFT OF ISELLE ROUGHLY 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LA.
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS OR LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. AND EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE SOUTH OF THERE IS
STARTING TO DECREASE, PW'S ARE STILL OVER 1.5" LOCALLY SO THE
MUGGY-NESS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY. AND IN FACT,
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION SHOULD REBOUND
BACK TO VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND MORE SUNSHINE. HELPING THAT CAUSE WILL BE THE VERY WARM
MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AS OF 3AM.
THERE IS GOOD NEWS THOUGH AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
SUNDAY OR MONDAY MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HUMIDITIES MUCH LOWER AS WELL.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
28/338 AM.
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FAVORING A TROUGH PATTERN ALONG
THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SOME HEIGHT RISES ARE LIKELY BY
MID WEEK LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND WED-FRI. MOST OF THE
PROJECTIONS KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK, AT MOST MAYBE 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, THOUGH THERE IS MAYBE A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGHS 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A RETURN TO MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS IS LESS
LIKELY THAN WHAT MODELS SHOWED YESTERDAY AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
OFF MEXICO GETS STEERED WELL TO THE WEST.
AVIATION
28/1945Z.
AT 1847Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 450 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 C.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE TAF PACKAGE. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
EXPECTING BKN/OVC150. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
FORMING TONIGHT, AND FOR KSMX THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR KPRB, KSMX, KSBP, KPMD, AND
KWJF THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THAT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT TO BKN CIGS ABOVE 10KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD, AND THE EAST WIND COMPONENT
IS EXPECTED TO STAY 6 KT OR LOWER.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT TO BKN CIGS ABOVE 10KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD
MARINE
28/929 AM.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WITH SHORT-PERIOD
CHOPPY SEAS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL REACH INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON/EVE). LOCAL GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KT NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING THE THREAT
OF ERRATIC WINDS, LOCALIZED ROUGH SEAS AND CLOUD-TO-SURFACE
LIGHTNING.
FOR NEXT WEEK, MOST WATERS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK BUT SIGNAL ISN'T STRONG, MODERATE AT BEST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 88-349-350-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
341>345-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 340>345-353-375>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RK
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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