253
FXUS66 KLOX 282127
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
227 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
28/205 PM.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY. MORE WARM
TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
28/221 PM.
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD STILL FORM OVER SLO OR SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY, AS WELL AS ANY MOUNTAIN OR DESERT LOCATION, BUT
THE RISKS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE END ALL TOGETHER.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER ARIZONA, THAT DROVE THE HEAT
AND MOISTURE SURGE THIS WEEK, WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE EAST
AND OVER TEXAS BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW MOVING TROUGH TO THE
NORTH WILL DROP DEEPER INTO CALIFORNIA AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL DO TWO IMPORTANT THINGS. ONE, IT WILL SHUT OFF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED BY SUNDAY AND REPLACE IT WITH A MORE
TYPICAL DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL END THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REDUCE THE MUGGY FEELING (BUT NOT
COMPLETELY CRUSH IT THANKS TO OUR VERY WARM OCEANS THAT ARE NOT
GOING ANYWHERE). SECONDLY, THIS WILL COOL THE AIRMASS QUICKLY SUCH
THAT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WE WILL GO FROM HIGH TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THIS TRANSITION WILL HAPPEN FASTER FOR SLO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY, WHICH IN SOME RESPECTS HAS ALREADY BEGUN. FOR LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES HOWEVER, IT WILL HAPPEN SLOWER. TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL NOT FEEL AS HOT AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, BUT IT WILL
STILL FEEL VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAYING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND HIGHS TOMORROW STILL 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, DECIDED TO GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW OVER THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, AND SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY - WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
CURRENT EXTREME HEAT WARNING ENDS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST OF IT AND THE LAST STRAW OF OUR ONGOING HEAT EVENT.
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BUT PREDICTING
EXACTLY HOW IT WILL RETURN AND WHERE IS ALWAYS AN IMPOSSIBLE TASK.
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE PEAK REMAIN SQUARED ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, DECIDED TO PUT OUT A LOW-END WIND ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT LARGELY BECAUSE OF MODELS UNDER-PREDICTING THESE WINDS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL DEFINITELY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
28/227 PM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY REMAINS A TALE OF TWO POTENTIAL OUTCOMES.
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR FAIRLY NORMAL CONDITIONS IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURE AND WIND. THIS INCLUDES MULTIPLE TROPICAL STORMS
FORMING OFF THE BAJA COAST WITH ANY EFFECTS FOR US (OUTSIDE OF
BUILDING SURF) STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE NOT PROBABLE BUT
STILL POSSIBLE OUTCOME IS FOR MOISTURE FROM ONE OF THOSE STORMS TO
BE PULLED UP THROUGH SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA IN THAT WINDOW AND BRING
US SOME VARIETY OF MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS KEEP THIS POSIBILITY IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE, AND OUR
CURRENT FORECAST LARGELY RESEMBLES THIS. THE CANADIAN MODEL
CONTINUES TO BE AT ODDS WITH THE REST, WITH ALMOST HALF OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCING RAIN, AND ABOUT A QUARTER OF THEM WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
28/1945Z.
AT 1847Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 450 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 C.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE TAF PACKAGE. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
EXPECTING BKN/OVC150. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
FORMING TONIGHT, AND FOR KSMX THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR KPRB, KSMX, KSBP, KPMD, AND
KWJF THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THAT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT TO BKN CIGS ABOVE 10KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD, AND THE EAST WIND COMPONENT
IS EXPECTED TO STAY 6 KT OR LOWER.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT TO BKN CIGS ABOVE 10KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD
MARINE
28/155 PM.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WILL REACH INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND INTO THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SATURDAY). LOCAL GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35
KT NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
BRING THE THREAT OF ERRATIC WINDS, LOCALIZED ROUGH SEAS AND CLOUD-
TO- SURFACE LIGHTNING.
FOR NEXT WEEK, MOST WATERS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK BUT SIGNAL ISN'T STRONG, MODERATE AT BEST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 88-349-350-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
341>345-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 340>345-353-375>380. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RK
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...BLACK/RS
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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