482
FXUS66 KLOX 290347
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
847 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
28/845 PM.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY. MORE WARM,
TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY REDEVELOP, AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
28/845 PM.
***UPDATE***
SHOWER CHANCES ARE QUICKLY COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES
EAST, AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. WILL ALSO
FINALLY SEE THESE HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA, AND THE
GRADUAL REFORMATION OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS OVER THE WATERS. MOST
OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE COASTS SOUTH OF POINT DUME. OTHERWISE, LOOKING FORWARD TO A
COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR FROM PASO ROBLES TO
THE CUYAMA VALLEY, WHERE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LESS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF WARMING FOR
SATURDAY. NORTHERLY SUNDOWNER WINDS OF 20-40 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK, ALTHOUGH IF ONSHORE FLOW IS SLOW TO
DEVELOP, MAY NEED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD STILL FORM OVER SLO OR SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY, AS WELL AS ANY MOUNTAIN OR DESERT LOCATION, BUT
THE RISKS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE END ALL TOGETHER.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER ARIZONA, THAT DROVE THE HEAT
AND MOISTURE SURGE THIS WEEK, WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE EAST
AND OVER TEXAS BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW MOVING TROUGH TO THE
NORTH WILL DROP DEEPER INTO CALIFORNIA AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL DO TWO IMPORTANT THINGS. ONE, IT WILL SHUT OFF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED BY SUNDAY AND REPLACE IT WITH A MORE
TYPICAL DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL END THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REDUCE THE MUGGY FEELING (BUT NOT
COMPLETELY CRUSH IT THANKS TO OUR VERY WARM OCEANS THAT ARE NOT
GOING ANYWHERE). SECONDLY, THIS WILL COOL THE AIRMASS QUICKLY SUCH
THAT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WE WILL GO FROM HIGH TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THIS TRANSITION WILL HAPPEN FASTER FOR SLO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY, WHICH IN SOME RESPECTS HAS ALREADY BEGUN. FOR LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES HOWEVER, IT WILL HAPPEN SLOWER. TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL NOT FEEL AS HOT AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, BUT IT WILL
STILL FEEL VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAYING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND HIGHS TOMORROW STILL 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, DECIDED TO GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW OVER THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, AND SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY - WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
CURRENT EXTREME HEAT WARNING ENDS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST OF IT AND THE LAST STRAW OF OUR ONGOING HEAT EVENT.
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BUT PREDICTING
EXACTLY HOW IT WILL RETURN AND WHERE IS ALWAYS AN IMPOSSIBLE TASK.
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE PEAK REMAIN SQUARED ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, DECIDED TO PUT OUT A LOW-END WIND ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT LARGELY BECAUSE OF MODELS UNDER-PREDICTING THESE WINDS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL DEFINITELY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
28/227 PM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY REMAINS A TALE OF TWO POTENTIAL OUTCOMES.
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR FAIRLY NORMAL CONDITIONS IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURE AND WIND. THIS INCLUDES MULTIPLE TROPICAL STORMS
FORMING OFF THE BAJA COAST WITH ANY EFFECTS FOR US (OUTSIDE OF
BUILDING SURF) STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE NOT PROBABLE BUT
STILL POSSIBLE OUTCOME IS FOR MOISTURE FROM ONE OF THOSE STORMS TO
BE PULLED UP THROUGH SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA IN THAT WINDOW AND BRING
US SOME VARIETY OF MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS KEEP THIS POSIBILITY IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE, AND OUR
CURRENT FORECAST LARGELY RESEMBLES THIS. THE CANADIAN MODEL
CONTINUES TO BE AT ODDS WITH THE REST, WITH ALMOST HALF OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCING RAIN, AND ABOUT A QUARTER OF THEM WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
29/0213Z.
AT 00Z AT KLAX, NO MARINE LAYER WAS PRESENT, NOR INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE TAF PACKAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS FORMING TONIGHT, HIGHEST CHANCES WOULD BE FOR
KSBP AND KSMX. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR KSMX.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT TO BKN CIGS ABOVE 10KFT ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND THE EAST WIND COMPONENT
IS EXPECTED TO STAY 6 KT OR LOWER.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT TO BKN CIGS ABOVE 10KFT ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
MARINE
28/748 PM.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WILL REACH INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND INTO THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS). LOCAL GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY EVENING.
FOR NEXT WEEK, MOST WATERS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK BUT SIGNAL ISN'T STRONG, MODERATE AT BEST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
88-349-350-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/RK
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/SCHOENFELD
MARINE...BLACK/RS
SYNOPSIS...PHILLIPS/RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page