927
FXUS66 KLOX 291941
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1241 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
29/910 AM.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY WITH WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY. MORE WARM,
TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY REDEVELOP, AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
29/833 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE COOLING TREND IS HERE; CURRENT TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURES AT THE SAME TIME (24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE)
ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 3 TO 7 DEGREES ALMOST EVERYWHERE. EVEN WITH
SOME COOLING, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM (6-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL) AND HUMID FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUS THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTS AND VALLEYS OF VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT.
LAST NIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY GUSTED
TO 30 TO 40 MPH. TONIGHT BOTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WIND STRENGTH, THUS 40
TO 50 MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO NIGHT FOR THE AREA,
AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWERING AS WELL,
THOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY TO REALLY NOTICE THE DIFFERENCE.
THE SOURCE OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
EAST BUT THERE'S STILL SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO SCOOT EAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE AND MOST AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY, THE
HIGHEST BEING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
IS BEGINNING TO RE-ESTABLISH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DENSE
FOG MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MOST AREAS
FIRMLY BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN LOCALLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER THAT MAY EVEN REACH SOME OF THE COASTAL
VALLEYS.
INCREASING SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
29/346 AM.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE 4-7 DAY FORECAST AS THERE ARE STILL
SOME SOLUTIONS FAVORING A RETURN TO A MORE TROPICAL PATTERN NEXT
WEEK AND BEYOND. HOWEVER, MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE
LEANING TOWARD A RELATIVELY NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD
BRING 90 DEGREE TEMPS BACK TO DOWNTOWN LA AND AROUND 100-105 IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.
AVIATION
29/1936Z.
AT 1816Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS FORMING TONIGHT, HIGHEST CHANCES WOULD BE FOR
KSBP AND KSMX. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR KSMX.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE ISA 10% CHANCE OF BKN008
CONDS 12-17Z SUN. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT
REMAINING BELOW 7 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
29/1241 PM.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WILL REACH INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND INTO THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS). LOCAL GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35
KT NEAR POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR NEXT WEEK, MOST WATERS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK, HIGHEST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
88-349-350-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...KL
MARINE...BLACK/RS/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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