173
FXUS66 KLOX 292338
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
438 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
29/910 AM.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY WITH WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY. MORE WARM,
TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY REDEVELOP, AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
29/1243 PM.
THE COOLING TREND IS HERE; TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURES AT THE SAME TIME (24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE)
WERE DOWN BY AT LEAST 3 TO 7 DEGREES REGIONWIDE. EVEN WITH TODAY'S
COOLING, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM (6-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL) AND HUMID FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTS AND VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THROUGH
8 PM TONIGHT. MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY DUE TO TROUGH
TO THE NORTH IMPACTING THE REGION.
LAST NIGHT, WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY GUSTED
TO 30 TO 40 MPH. TONIGHT BOTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WIND STRENGTH, THUS 40
TO 50 MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO NIGHT FOR THE AREA,
AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD FARTHER INLAND
THAN LAST NIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
ARE LESS LIKELY TO FORM, BUT POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. GOING FORWARD, THE MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED WITH GREATER INLAND COVERAGE BY MONDAY MORNING,
DUE TO FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS, LESS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE,
AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS AROUND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER LA AND VENTURA COUNTY. THIS
IS A RESULT OF MORE TROPICAL MOSITURE THAT MAY BE SHUTTLED INTO
THE REGION, AS THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS INTO
SOCAL.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
29/1249 PM.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT IS MOST
LIKELY TO BE DRY. OTHERWISE MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS FAVORED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY FOR A FAIRLY LONG
DURATION, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A ROBUST MARINE LAYER AT THE COASTS
AND COASTAL PLAINS. SOMEWHERE AROUND SEPTEMBER 7-9TH THERE ARE
SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO IMPACT SOCAL.
AVIATION
29/2336Z.
AT 2228Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FEET DEEP WITH AN
INVERSION TO 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 DEGREES C.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF AT KSBP WITH A 40% CHANCE FOR LIFR-IFR CONDS
FROM 07Z-17Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KSMX. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR NO
LOW CLOUDS. OTHERWISE TIMING OF ARRIVAL MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS AND
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR VLIFR CONDS AND FG.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS AT REMAINING SITES. LESS THAN 10%
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDS FOR LA COUNTY COASTAL SITES 10Z-17Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF
BKN005-009 CONDS 10-17Z SUN. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WIND
COMPONENT REMAINING BELOW 7 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
29/1241 PM.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WILL REACH INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND INTO THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS). LOCAL GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35
KT NEAR POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR NEXT WEEK, MOST WATERS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK, HIGHEST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
88-349-350-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...BLACK/RS/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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