514
FXUS66 KLOX 301645
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
30/247 AM.
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND MONDAY. MORE WARM,
TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY REDEVELOP, AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
30/944 AM.
***UPDATE***
COOLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER ALREADY THIS MORNING, IN SOME AREAS BY AS MUCH AS
10-15 DEGREES. IN ADDITION, PW'S ARE DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS WELL
WHICH MEANS HUMIDITIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE LOWERING AS
WELL.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO TREND SLOWLY WARMER BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
TROUGH WEAKENS. AND WILL BE PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO NEXT WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS BRINGING THE NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF MEXICO RIGHT UP INTO THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT
WITH PW'S WELL OVER 2" ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTH SWELLS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
TROFFING WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN CA AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS MOVES
THROUGH THE PACNW. HGTS WILL FALL FROM 588 DAM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO 582-584 DAM MON AND TUE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BOTH TODAY
AND MONDAY BUT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE TRENDS ON
TUESDAY.
JUST A FEW LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN SBA
COUNTY. LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
FALLING HGTS AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. THE CENTRAL COAST, VTA
COAST AND LA COAST WILL LIKELY HAVE GOOD STRATUS COVERAGE. THE
OFFSHORE TRENDS AND INFLUX OF SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS ON TUESDAY LIMITING IT TO
THE CENTRAL COAST.
THE LOWERING HGTS AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING 3 TO 6
DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY (ONLY 1 TO 2 ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST) AND
BY MONDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL WITH VLYS
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMP
TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID AS SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAM IN.
THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX WILL LEAD TO A 15 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER LA AND VENTURA
COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
30/248 AM.
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE XTND PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS THAT A TROFFING PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE MDT
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOONS ALONG WITH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE MORNINGS. THIS SHOULD DEVELOP
A NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUD PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE CSTS SAVE
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THAT AREA CLEAR.
SLOWLY RISING HGTS WILL BRING A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING EACH OF
THE FOUR DAYS. EVEN WITH THIS WARMING MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE MAJOR EXCEPTIONS OF THE LA/VTA CSTS AND THE
SAN GABRIEL VLY.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK (SEP 7-9)
BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MDL DISAGREEMENT ON THIS.
AVIATION
30/0947Z.
AT 0832Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FEET DEEP WITH AN
INVERSION TO 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 DEGREES C.
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF AT KSBP WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR LIFR-IFR
CONDS FROM 13Z-17Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KSMX. VFR FCST TIMING MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR AND THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR VLIFR CONDS AND FG.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS AT REMAINING SITES. LESS THAN 10%
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDS FOR LA COUNTY COASTAL SITES 13Z-17Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF
BKN005-009 CONDS 13Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WIND
COMPONENT REMAINING BELOW 7 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
30/857 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) NORTHWEST WINDS
(20-30 KNOTS) AND STEEP, CHOPPY SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL REACH INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTO THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL TODAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. LOCAL WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
MONDAY WITH ONLY LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...LEWIS/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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