090
FXUS66 KLOX 140542
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1042 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026
***UPDATED AVIATION SECTION***
SYNOPSIS
13/539 PM.
WARM BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH COASTAL MORNING LOW CLOUDS. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
13/824 PM.
***UPDATE***
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH
THE REGION IN THE MIDST OF A SEVERAL-DAY COOLING TREND, TODAY'S
HIGHS WERE IN THE 70S NEAR THE COASTS, WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S
FURTHER INLAND. WHILE LOW HUMIDITIES WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
INTERIOR, CLOSER TO THE COAST CONDITIONS REMAIN STICKY PROVIDING
LESS RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS FINALLY BELOW 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, DEEPENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE THE
COOLING TREND, AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER
AND AN EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE COAST ACROSS THE COASTAL
VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A COASTAL EDDY WILL HELP TO PUSH THE CLOUDS INLAND AND
MAY BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AS FOR WINDS, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND SW
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY HAVE HELPED TO KEEP THE SOUTH COAST AND
VENTURA COAST MOSTLY CLEAR OF LOW CLOUDS. WINDS ARE SUBSIDING
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE WIND ADVISORY THERE WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS ACROSS WESTERN SBA SOUTH COAST AND
WESTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE ARE WELL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA,
BUT THE EASTERN RANGE HAS SO FAR REMAINED BELOW THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER, GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS ABOVE
MISSION CANYON SO WILL LEAVE THAT PART OF THE ADVISORY INTACT FOR
NOW.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON SAVE FOR A FEW STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS NEAR MALIBU AND OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING THE
WARMEST OF THE DAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD 70S AND 80S AND
A SMATTERING OF LOW 90S. A BIT DRIER AREA HAS WORKED INTO THE
AREA ASSISTING WITH THE COOLER FEEL TO THE AIR, ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL PROBABLY A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
WIND HAZARDS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST TO SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LOOK GOOD. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SHORT-FUSED WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STEADY LOWERING IN DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURES REMAINS IN PLAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL AMPLIFY EACH
DAY. TWO, SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN HEALTHILY
ONSHORE. THREE, GUSTY CENTRAL COAST AND SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL PEAK
THIS EVENING, THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN. THESE WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY, BUT COME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR A HUGE COASTAL EDDY FORMING IN
THEIR WAKE WITH RAPID LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION. WOULD
EXPECT A FEW RANDOM REPORTS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL. ALL OF THIS WILL
BOOST THE TEMPERATURE DROP. WITH ALL THAT STATED, HIGHS WILL STILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHICH IS NOT COLD, BUT NOT
HOT EITHER AND BELOW NORMAL BY 5 OR 10 DEGREES.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
13/159 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL EXPAND TO THE
WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THAT EXPANSION WILL BE
BATTLING A SMALL YET POTENT CLOSED LOW SPINNING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
SAN FRANSISCO AND PORTLAND. HOW THOSE TWO FEATURES INTERACT IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR, WITH A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
PROJECTIONS IN TERMS OF THE WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS AND THE
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND IS VERY LIKELY, BUT
IT COULD BE ONLY 5 DEGREES OR IT COULD BE 15 DEGREES...OR
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE WARMEST SCENARIO WOULD KNOCK ON THE DOOR
OF SOME TARGETED HEAT ADVISORIES, BUT THAT IS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE
AT THIS POINT. THE TROPICAL STORM TRAIN OFF WESTERN MEXICO LOOKS
TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE SURGE SIGNALS INTO CALIFORNIA AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
14/0541Z.
AT 05Z OVER KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 3200 FEET AND 23 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AT
KPRB, KPMD, KWJF, AND THROUGH MONDAY FOR KSBA.
SOME MODERATE LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KSBA AND KSBP THROUGH 10Z WITH
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE NEARBY HILLS.
FOR TONIGHT: LIFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBP (10%), KSMX
(50%), KOXR (30%), KCMA (30%). IFR/MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSMO
(50%) KLAX (60%) KLGB (70%) KBUR (40%) KVNY (30%).
FOR MONDAY NIGHT: LIFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBP (20%) KSMX
(60%). IFR/MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBA (30%) KOXR (50%) KCMA
(50%) KSMO (80%) KLAX (80%) KLGB (90%) KBUR (60%) KVNY (60%).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TIMING (+/- 3 HOURS).
KLAX...60% CHANCE OF BKN012-020 TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND A 80%
CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CEILINGS STARTING SOMETIME IN
THE 10-14Z MONDAY, AND 6-10Z ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY
08-17Z EACH MORNING, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF REACHING 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...40% CHANCE OF BKN0006-012 TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND A 60%
CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
13/604 PM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT SUITE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
(SCA) AND GALE WARNINGS (GLW). HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT (TONIGHT) ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. UPPER-END SCA WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT (TONIGHT), WITH A 50% CHANCE OF LOW-END SCA
WINDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE A
BUILDING SHORT-PERIOD FRESH SWELL OVER ALL WATERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. STRONGER THAN USUAL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIKELY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. LOCAL GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ISLANDS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
349-351-352. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RM/CILIBERTI
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...RK/DB
SYNOPSIS...RK/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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