892
FXUS66 KLOX 141555
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
855 AM PDT MON SEP 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
14/1239 AM.
WARM BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH EXPANDING COASTAL MORNING LOW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
14/852 AM.
***UPDATE***
NO CHANGES WITH THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. QUIET WEATHER WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS AHEAD OF US. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
LOWER A LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHY? FOR ONE, AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
AMPLIFY EACH DAY. SECONDLY, SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP
COOLISH OCEAN AIR PUSHING INLAND WHILE THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
GRADIENTS FROM THE WEEKEND RETURN TO ONSHORE. LASTLY, THE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WILL DECREASE SHARPLY
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE MARINE LAYER TO FLEX
MORE AND EXPAND. A STRONG COASTAL EDDY IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK TO
FORM ON TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD REALLY EXPAND THAT COOL MARINE LAYER
AIR AND MAY BRING SOME SPOTS OF PAVEMENT-WETTING DRIZZLE. AS A
RESULT, HIGHS WILL STILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S
WHICH IS FAR FROM COLD, BUT NOT HOT EITHER AND BELOW NORMAL BY 5
OR 10 DEGREES.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
14/118 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL EXPAND TO THE
WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THAT EXPANSION WILL BATTLE A
SMALL YET POTENT CLOSED LOW SPINNING NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. IT SEEMS LIKE THE VAST MAJORITY OF PROJECTIONS HAVE
SETTLED ON A PATTERN THAT WILL BRING WARMING TO THE AREA, BUT THE
LOW WILL LIMIT THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANSION AND THE RESULTING
WARMING. SOME MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY,
ALONG WITH THE HIGHERING PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY LOWER THE
EXTENT OVER THE MARINE LAYER BUT NOT GET RID OF IT. WITH ALL THAT
IN CONSIDERATION, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO BUMP UP 5-ISH DEGREES AND
SETTLE IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY, WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS LOOK
UNLIKELY. THE TROPICAL STORM TRAIN OFF WESTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE, BUT NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE SIGNALS
INTO CALIFORNIA.
AVIATION
14/0931Z.
AT 09Z OVER KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2000 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 4000 FEET AND 22 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AT
KPRB, KPMD, KWJF.
FOR THIS MORNING: LIFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBP (10%), KSMX
(30%), KOXR (30%), KCMA (30%). MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSMO
(50%) KLAX (60%) KLGB (90%) KBUR (40%) KVNY (30%).
FOR TUESDAY MORNING: LIFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBP (20%)
KSMX (60%). MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBA (30%) KOXR (50%) KCMA
(50%) KSMO (80%) KLAX (80%) KLGB (90%) KBUR (60%) KVNY (60%).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TIMING (+/- 3 HOURS).
KLAX...60% CHANCE OF BKN012-020 THIS MORNING, AND A 80% CHANCE
TUESDAY MORNING.SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY 08-17Z EACH MORNING, WITH
A 20% CHANCE OF REACHING 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...40% CHANCE OF BKN0006-012 THIS MORNING, AND A 60% CHANCE
TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
14/854 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE
OUTER WATERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL COAST WATERS, AND LOCALLY THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HAZARDS FOR THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVE LIGHT WINDS
WITH NO SCA OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
A RETURN OF NORMAL OUTER WATERS SCA WINDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE A BUILDING SHORT- PERIOD
FRESH SWELL OVER ALL WATERS.
STRONGER THAN USUAL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE SCAS ARE
NOT EXPECTED, LOCAL GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RK
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...RK/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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