550
FXUS66 KLOX 142049
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
149 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
14/1239 AM.
WARM BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH EXPANDING COASTAL MORNING LOW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
14/148 PM.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
DAYTIME HIGHS SO FAR TODAY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 70S TO 80S
WITH SAN LUIS OBISPO CITY OF THE HOT SPOTS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS AHEAD OF US. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
LOWER A LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO
THURSDAY. WHY? FOR ONE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL AMPLIFY EACH DAY. SECONDLY,
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP COOLISH OCEAN AIR PUSHING
INLAND WHILE THE NORTH-TO- SOUTH GRADIENTS FROM THE WEEKEND RETURN
TO ONSHORE. LASTLY, THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
WILL DECREASE SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE MARINE LAYER TO FLEX MORE AND EXPAND. A STRONG COASTAL EDDY IS
ALSO STILL ON TRACK TO FORM ON TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD REALLY
EXPAND THAT COOL MARINE LAYER AIR INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS TO
LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND MAY BRING SOME SPOTS OF PAVEMENT-
WETTING DRIZZLE. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL STILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 70S TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS FAR FROM COLD, BUT NOT HOT EITHER
AND BELOW NORMAL BY 5 OR 10 DEGREES.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
14/145 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL EXPAND TO THE
WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THAT EXPANSION WILL BATTLE A
SMALL YET POTENT CLOSED LOW SPINNING NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. IT SEEMS LIKE THE VAST MAJORITY OF PROJECTIONS HAVE
SETTLED ON A PATTERN THAT WILL BRING WARMING TO THE AREA, BUT THE
LOW WILL LIMIT THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANSION AND THE RESULTING
WARMING. SOME MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY,
ALONG WITH THE HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE
COOLING EFFECTS OF THE MARINE LAYER. WITH ALL THAT IN
CONSIDERATION, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO BUMP UP 5-ISH DEGREES AND SETTLE
IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY, WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS LOOK UNLIKELY.
THE TROPICAL STORM TRAIN OFF WESTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACTIVE,
BUT NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE SIGNALS INTO
CALIFORNIA.
A WEAK LIKELY MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BRINGING INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND
KICK OFF A SLOW COOLING TREND WITH INCREASED MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE.
AVIATION
14/1744Z.
AT 1719Z OVER KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2700 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS 5800 FEET AND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF FOR KWJF AND KPMD. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF FOR KPRB WITH A 20% CHANCE OF IFR CONDS
AFTER 12Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KSMX AND KSBP DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW
CLOUD FORMATION. 40% CHANCE FOR LIFR TO IFR CONDS AT KSBP AFTER
10Z WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR VLIFR CONDS DUE TO FG. 40% CHANCE
OF VLIFR CONDS DUE TO FG AT KSMX AND 30% CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A FAIRLY ROBUST MARINE LAYER SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION WITH MVFR CONDS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT (ARRIVAL +/- 2
HOURS OF TAF). CIGS MAY RAPIDLY RISE TO OVER 2000 FT AFTER 12Z
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS (6-12 KNOTS) DUE TO COASTAL EDDY.
CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLEAR TUESDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON FROM
COASTAL SITES DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS SHOULD CLEAR BY 20Z, THEN
RETURN BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH OR
EXCEED 8 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEST CHANCES 10Z-17Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL OF CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN
05Z-09Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 7 KT LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.
MARINE
14/137 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND IN SOME
AREAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOW END SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL COAST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON,
AND LOCALLY IN THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A RETURN OF NORMAL OUTER
WATERS (AND POTENTIALLY SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) NORTHWEST SCA
WINDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE A BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SWELL OVER ALL WATERS.
STRONGER THAN USUAL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER. WHILE SCAS
ARE NOT EXPECTED, LOCAL GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RM/RK
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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