308
FXUS66 KLOX 150252
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
752 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
14/1239 AM.
WARM BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH EXPANDING COASTAL MORNING LOW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (MON-THU)
14/750 PM.
***UPDATE***
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS ROUGHLY FROM THE OXNARD PLAIN SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE LA BASIN. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THAT LOW
CLOUDS ARE FORECASTED, BUT THIS AREA HAS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
DRIZZLE DUE TO COASTAL EDDY ACTING AS A MESOSCALE LIFTING MECHANISM.
I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED POCKETS OF HEAVY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.
WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS ANTELOPE FOOTHILLS/SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE DUE TO MODERATE
ONSHORE PUSH (15% CHANCE OF WIND ADVISORY).
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME COOLING EACH
DAY INTO MID-WEEK WITH NO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
DAYTIME HIGHS SO FAR TODAY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 70S TO 80S
WITH SAN LUIS OBISPO CITY OF THE HOT SPOTS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS AHEAD OF US. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
LOWER A LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO
THURSDAY. WHY? FOR ONE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL AMPLIFY EACH DAY. SECONDLY,
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP COOLISH OCEAN AIR PUSHING
INLAND WHILE THE NORTH-TO- SOUTH GRADIENTS FROM THE WEEKEND RETURN
TO ONSHORE. LASTLY, THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
WILL DECREASE SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE MARINE LAYER TO FLEX MORE AND EXPAND. A STRONG COASTAL EDDY IS
ALSO STILL ON TRACK TO FORM ON TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD REALLY
EXPAND THAT COOL MARINE LAYER AIR INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS TO
LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND MAY BRING SOME SPOTS OF PAVEMENT-
WETTING DRIZZLE. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL STILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 70S TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS FAR FROM COLD, BUT NOT HOT EITHER
AND BELOW NORMAL BY 5 OR 10 DEGREES.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
14/145 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL EXPAND TO THE
WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THAT EXPANSION WILL BATTLE A
SMALL YET POTENT CLOSED LOW SPINNING NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. IT SEEMS LIKE THE VAST MAJORITY OF PROJECTIONS HAVE
SETTLED ON A PATTERN THAT WILL BRING WARMING TO THE AREA, BUT THE
LOW WILL LIMIT THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANSION AND THE RESULTING
WARMING. SOME MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY,
ALONG WITH THE HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE
COOLING EFFECTS OF THE MARINE LAYER. WITH ALL THAT IN
CONSIDERATION, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO BUMP UP 5-ISH DEGREES AND SETTLE
IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY, WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS LOOK UNLIKELY.
THE TROPICAL STORM TRAIN OFF WESTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACTIVE,
BUT NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE SIGNALS INTO
CALIFORNIA.
A WEAK LIKELY MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BRINGING INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND
KICK OFF A SLOW COOLING TREND WITH INCREASED MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE.
AVIATION
14/2327Z.
AT 2236Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED MARINE LAYER SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION WITH MVFR CONDS AT ALL SITES. CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS (6-12 KTS), ALONG
WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR -DZ DUE TO COASTAL EDDY. ARRIVAL
TIMES SHOULD BE ACCURATE WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FCST,
WHILE CLEARING TIMES +/- 3 HOURS.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL TIMES OF MVFR CIGS 012
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND 15/04Z (+/- 2 HOURS), DEEPENING TO
NEAR 2,000 FT THRESHOLD 15/10-15Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING,
WITH A 30% CHANCE CIGS PERSIST OR BRIEFLY CLEAR THAN RETURN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH OR
EXCEED 8 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEST CHANCES 10Z-17Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL OF CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN
05Z-08Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 7 KT LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALL NIGHT
INTO THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING DUE SOUTH AROUND NOONTIME.
MARINE
14/750 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE CURRENTLY
BETWEEN 7 TO 9 FEET AT SHORT PERIODS, 6 TO 8 SECONDS, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS EASE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A RETURN OF NORMAL OUTER WATERS (AND
POTENTIALLY SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) NORTHWEST SCA WINDS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE A
BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SWELL OVER ALL WATERS.
STRONGER THAN USUAL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION TONIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE EASTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WHILE SCAS ARE NOT EXPECTED,
LOCAL GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ISLANDS. LOCALLY
CHOPPY SEAS COULD MAKE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALLER CRAFT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RM/DB
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...LEWIS/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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