299
FXUS66 KLOX 150943
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
243 AM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
15/242 AM.
WARM BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH EXPANDING COASTAL MORNING LOW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
15/242 AM.
PRETTY UNEXCITING WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS WSW FLOW WILL TURN SW AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO FAR NRN
CA. HGTS WILL BE AROUND 587 DAM. MDT OCNL STG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TODAY A FAIRLY STRONG EDDY HAS SPUN UP AND THE MARINE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY 2200 FT AND IS RISING UNDER THE EDDY'S INFLUENCE. MOST
OF THE CSTS AND VLYS WILL WAKE UP TO A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS. THE
LIFT FROM THE EDDY MAY EVEN PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE ESP NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL CLEARING ESP
NEAR THE CSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL 2 TO 4 DEGREES. CST/VLY MAX
TEMPS WILL END UP MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHICH IS MOSTLY
3 TO 6 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER
ROBUST MARINE LAYER IN THE MORNING. MOST MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
ANOTHER 1 OR 2 DEGREES.
THE EDDY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FIZZLE OUT SOME ON THURSDAY MORNING
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN THE VLYS AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER CLEARING. THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL BE COUNTERED BY
THE LOWER HGTS AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
15/242 AM.
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE XTND VERY WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY HGTS MAY APPROACH 588 DAM.
MDT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING FROM THE NORTH BUT IT WILL TURN TO
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MORNING OFFSHORE PUSH
SHOULD REDUCE (BUT NOT ELIMINATE) THE MORNING LOW CLOUD COVERAGE.
LOOK FOR 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CSTS AND 80S IN THE VLYS
ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE WARMING THESE MAX TEMPS ARE STILL 2 TO 4
DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
A WEAK, HIGH HGT AND DRY UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ITS EFFECTS WILL BE MINIMAL, JUST AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.
AVIATION
15/0942Z.
AT 0832Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2600 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 4400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KPMD & KWJF
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS WHERE CIGS MAY
RISE FASTER THAN FCST AND VFR CONDS MAY ARRIVE UP TO 90 MINUTES
LATER THAN FCST. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF -DZ.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY RISE FASTER THAN FCST.
VFR CONDS MAY ARRIVE AS LATE AS 2130Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE
WILL BE A GREATER THAN 8KT EAST WIND COMPONENT BEST CHANCES
12Z-16Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY RISE FASTER THAN FCST.
VFR CONDS MAY ARRIVE AS LATE AS 2100Z.
MARINE
15/232 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH THIS MORNING AROUND 9 AM OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 7
TO 9 FEET AT SHORT PERIODS, 6 TO 8 SECONDS, BUT WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS EASE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH A RETURN OF NORMAL OUTER WATERS (AND POTENTIALLY SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL) NORTHWEST SCA WINDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE A BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SWELL
OVER ALL WATERS.
STRONGER THAN USUAL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL AND NORTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WHILE SCAS ARE NOT EXPECTED, LOCAL
GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ISLANDS. LOCALLY CHOPPY
SEAS COULD MAKE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALLER CRAFT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...LEWIS/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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