045
FXUS66 KLOX 151728
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1028 AM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
15/242 AM.
WARM BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH EXPANDING COASTAL MORNING LOW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
15/1001 AM.
***UPDATE***
LOW CLOUDS BLANKED COASTS TO COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND EVEN
PUSHED INTO THE ACTON AREA. TRIMMED BACK SOME COASTAL TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE LONGEST
TODAY SUCH AS NEAR SAN LOUIS OBISPO (TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND 15
DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY!). WE DID SEE A COUPLE SPOTS WITH
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER REPEAT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOOKING INTO THE FUTURE WE CONTINUE TO SEE QUIET WEATHER WITH NO
EXTREME UPS OR DOWNS IN TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
PRETTY UNEXCITING WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS WSW FLOW WILL TURN SW AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO FAR NRN
CA. HGTS WILL BE AROUND 587 DAM. MDT OCNL STG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TODAY A FAIRLY STRONG EDDY HAS SPUN UP AND THE MARINE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY 2200 FT AND IS RISING UNDER THE EDDY'S INFLUENCE. MOST
OF THE CSTS AND VLYS WILL WAKE UP TO A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS. THE
LIFT FROM THE EDDY MAY EVEN PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE ESP NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL CLEARING ESP
NEAR THE CSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL 2 TO 4 DEGREES. CST/VLY MAX
TEMPS WILL END UP MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHICH IS MOSTLY
3 TO 6 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER
ROBUST MARINE LAYER IN THE MORNING. MOST MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
ANOTHER 1 OR 2 DEGREES.
THE EDDY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FIZZLE OUT SOME ON THURSDAY MORNING
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN THE VLYS AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER CLEARING. THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL BE COUNTERED BY
THE LOWER HGTS AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
15/242 AM.
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE XTND VERY WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY HGTS MAY APPROACH 588 DAM.
MDT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING FROM THE NORTH BUT IT WILL TURN TO
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MORNING OFFSHORE PUSH
SHOULD REDUCE (BUT NOT ELIMINATE) THE MORNING LOW CLOUD COVERAGE.
LOOK FOR 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CSTS AND 80S IN THE VLYS
ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE WARMING THESE MAX TEMPS ARE STILL 2 TO 4
DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
A WEAK, HIGH HGT AND DRY UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ITS EFFECTS WILL BE MINIMAL, JUST AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.
AVIATION
15/1728Z.
AT 1701Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 3200 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE A DEEP MARINE LAYER BRINGING LOW CLOUDS TO ALL
COASTAL AND VALLEY SITES (10% CHANCE AT KPMD & KWJF). MVFR CONDS
WILL DOMINATE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, WITH IFR TO MVFR TO THE
NORTH. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF -DZ AT ANY SITE WITH LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION: 50% CHANCE OF NO CLEARING TODAY WITH
IFR-MVFR CONDS CONTINUING AT KSBP/KSMX. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ARRIVAL
TIME (+/ 4 HOURS) AND MIN CIG HEIGHT (+/- 500 FT) AT KPRB
TONIGHT.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION: 30% CHANCE OF NO CLEARING TODAY WITH
MVFR-VFR CIGS CONTINUING. OTHERWISE ARRIVAL TIMES MAY BE OFF +/- 3
HOURS AND SOME SITES MAY SEE CIGS REMAIN GREATER THAN BKN/OVC022
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
CLEARING THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR NO CLEARING OF
MVFR-VFR CIGS, OTHERWISE CLEARING TIME LIKELY FROM NOW THROUGH
22Z. CIGS MAY REMAIN ABOVE BKN/OVC022 THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINING BELOW 8 KT AFTER
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
CLEARING THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR NO CLEARING OF
MVFR-VFR CIGS, OTHERWISE CLEARING TIME LIKELY FROM NOW THROUGH
22Z.
MARINE
15/803 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
ARE SUBSIDING, BUT WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT SUITE OF SCAS
THROUGH NOON AS STEEP, SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL LINGER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A RETURN OF NORMAL OUTER WATERS (AND
POTENTIALLY SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL) NORTHWEST SCA WINDS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE A
BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SWELL OVER ALL WATERS.
STRONGER THAN USUAL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. GUSTS OF 15-20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AND LOCALLY CHOPPY SEAS COULD MAKE CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALLER CRAFT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ZONES
670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RM/RORKE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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