222
FXUS66 KLOX 160611
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1111 PM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
15/1110 PM.
WARM BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH EXPANDING COASTAL MORNING LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY
MORNING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT INTO MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
15/854 PM.
***UPDATE***
TODAY BECAME A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AFTER THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
BURNED OFF LATE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S, WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO MAKE A RETURN TONIGHT, AND
VERY PATCHY IN NATURE. THANKS TO AN INCOMING TROUGH AND LOWERING
500 MB HEIGHTS, EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE JUST AS EXPANSIVE INTO THE
VALLEYS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING DRIZZLE, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER
MOUNTAIN PASSES AS THE CLOUDS START TO ROLL IN.
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AS THE 500 MB HEIGHTS DECREASE. THIS
WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST,
WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE IS STILL IN THAT 70S TO 80S RANGE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF DEEP MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN SHAPE AND NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED
THIS EVENING.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
DEEP MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE WELL INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS TODAY
WILL EXPAND FURTHER INLAND AND UPWARD INTO ADDITIONAL LOWER
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND INTERIOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTO
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITHIN
THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY IMPACT
LOWER MOUNTAIN PASSES INCLUDING LOWER PORTIONS OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR
AS THE LOW CLOUDS DEEPEN TO BETWEEN 3000-4500 FEET. REVERSE
CLEARING IS LIKELY WHERE LOW CLOUDS HANG ON LONGER COASTAL
VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY FOOTHILLS WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLEAR MUCH OF THE DAY.
A WEAK TROUGH BRIEFLY STALLING JUST NORTH OF SAN FRANSISCO AND
THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING AND BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS FOR THE FAR INTERIOR.
WE ENTER A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
BEYOND. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY WITH A
POP UP RIDGE WARMING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES AND APPROACHING
NORMAL BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK IN
COVERAGE AND SIZE AND MAY UNDERGO SHRINKING PAINS WHERE IT
STRUGGLES TO REFORM, LEADING UNEXPECTEDLY SUNNY SKIES SOMETIME
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
15/1204 PM.
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE XTND VERY WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY HGTS MAY APPROACH 588 DAM.
MDT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING FROM THE NORTH BUT IT WILL TURN TO
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MORNING OFFSHORE PUSH
SHOULD REDUCE (BUT NOT ELIMINATE) THE MORNING LOW CLOUD COVERAGE.
LOOK FOR 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CSTS AND 80S IN THE
VLYS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE WARMING THESE MAX TEMPS ARE STILL 2
TO 4 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO GIN UP A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND PERHAPS SOME
MORNING DRIZZLE OR A PASSING SHOWER.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN, WE HAVE
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
16/0610Z.
AT 0501Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT
CHANGES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF -DZ
10Z-16Z. THERE IS A 30% CHC OF NO CLEARING AT ANY GIVEN COASTAL
SITE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR NO
AFTERNOON CLEARING. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF -DZ 10Z-16Z. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF OVC015 CONDS 09Z-15Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC OF AN 8 KT EAST WIND COMPONENT 11Z-16Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CLEARING COULD BE AS LATE AS
20Z.
MARINE
15/748 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SCA LEVEL NW WINDS WILL RETURN
TO OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF POINT SAL BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THESE WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
REACHING INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND AT
LEAST THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. PEAK WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS PAST
WEEKEND LIKELY TOPPING OUT 20-25 KT & LOCALLY 25-30 KT OVER
CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED WATERS SUCH AS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...RM/KL
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...RK/KL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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