080
FXUS66 KLOX 161534
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
834 AM PDT WED SEP 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
15/1110 PM.
WARM BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH EXPANDING COASTAL MORNING LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY
MORNING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT INTO MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
16/834 AM.
***UPDATE***
MOST FOLKS WOKE UP TO ANOTHER GRAY SKY MORNING AS A VERY DEEP
MARINE LAYER HAS ONCE AGAIN BROUGHT CLOUDS TO ALMOST THE ENTIRE
REGION, SAVE FOR FAR INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ANOTHER DAY
OF SLIGHT YET WIDESPREAD COOLING IS ON TAP, BRINGING ANOTHER DAY
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO CLEAR TODAY AND SOME COASTS MAY
SEE NO CLEARING AT ALL. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF A
FAIRLY ROBUST MARINE LAYER TONIGHT.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE MARINE LAYER IS BETWEEN 2800 AND 3000 FT AND MARINE LAYER
STRATUS WILL COVER ALL OF THE CSTS AND VLYS BY DAWN. CLEARING WILL
BE ON THE SLOW SIDE AND SOME NEARSHORE AREAS WILL SEE NO CLEARING.
THIS DEEP FOR SEPTEMBER MARINE LAYER IS THE RESULT OF MDT ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH A CATALINA EDDY. THE LIFT FROM THE EDDY WILL BRING
A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHC OF SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS WELL. THE DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE AREA. MAX TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE CSTS
AND VLYS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S OR 4 TO 8
LOCALLY 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
NOT MUCH CHANGE ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRANSVERSE THE FAR
NORTHERN CA. IT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON SRN CA JUST A FEW DAM
OF HGT FALLS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CYCLONIC TURNING. LOOK FOR
ANOTHER MORNING OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS. MAX TEMPS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM TODAY.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO THE EAST BUT NOR
FAST ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECT. WHAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT IS
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH THAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL REDUCE THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND LEAD TO BETTER AND
FASTER CLEARING. MOST MAX TEMPS WILL RISE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ALTHOUGH
PORTIONS OF SLO COUNTY WILL SEE EVEN MORE DUE TO SOME E TO W
OFFSHORE FLOW UP THERE.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
16/232 AM.
THE BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
ON SATURDAY A FAST MOVING POP UP RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE.
HGTS WILL BRIEFLY RISE TO 588 DAM. WHILE MDT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST, THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
MORNING FROM THE NORTH (TURNING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON). THERE
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF AN EDDY AND THERE WILL BE
LESS LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ESP IN THE VLYS.
A WEAK HIGH HGT (578 DAM) UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND LINGERS INTO MONDAY. IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY ASSOC MOISTURE AND
WILL DO NOTHING MORE THAN BRING AN INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
(PERHAPS SOME MORNING DRIZZLE) AND COOL TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE CSTS WITH
80S IN THE VLYS. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE MOSTLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL.
THE UPPER LOW MORPHS INTO A POS TILT LONG WAVE TROF AND IS DRAPED
OVER SRN CA. HGTS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT THE SFC GRADIENTS WEAK
CONSIDERABLY. THE REDUCED ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW CLOUDS AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB 2 TO 4 DEGREES.
AVIATION
16/0934Z.
AT 0822Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT
CHANGES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF -DZ
12Z-16Z. THERE IS A 30% CHC OF NO CLEARING AT ANY GIVEN COASTAL
SITE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR NO
AFTERNOON CLEARING. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF -DZ 10Z-16Z. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF AN 8 KT EAST WIND COMPONENT THRU 16Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CLEARING COULD BE AS LATE AS
20Z.
MARINE
16/833 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, EXCEPT FOR WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS
AROUND POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA LEVEL NW WINDS WILL
RETURN TO OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF POINT SAL BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS REACHING INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. PEAK WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
THAN THIS PAST WEEKEND LIKELY TOPPING OUT 20-25 KT & LOCALLY 25-30
KT OVER CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED WATERS SUCH AS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...RK/KL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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