689
FXUS66 KLOX 170151
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
651 PM PDT WED SEP 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
16/1228 PM.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A ROBUST MARINE LAYER THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHT
WARMING AND SHRINKING MARINE LAYER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
16/1248 PM.
THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH AND
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, AN EXTREMELY DEEP MARINE LAYER
BROUGHT A JUNE GLOOM DAY TO US HERE IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA IN
MID-SEPTEMBER. WE'RE EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF A FAIRLY ROBUST
MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER GRAY MORNING TO MOST FOLKS,
LIKELY WITH BETTER CLEARING TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES, THEN A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS QUITE A BIT AND A SHORT-LIVED POP UP RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, AND NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA LUCIAS. THIS COMBO SHOULD DRAMATICALLY
REDUCE THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STARTING FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
MOSLTY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
16/1228 PM.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY, MOST LIKELY REMAINING OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY. WHILE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS GENERALLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WITH A DEEPER AND MORE EXPANSIVE MARINE
LAYER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING DRIZZLE, THERE IS A VERY SMALL
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (LIKELY
FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS). MOST EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW INCREASING PWATS AS THE UPPER LOW'S CYCLONIC FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO PULL IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE FETCH TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST, BUT PWAT VALUES ARE NOT VERY SUBSTANTIAL WITH A MEAN JUST
OVER 1". ADDITIONALLY MOST MEMBERS ALSO SHOW SOME INCREASING CAPE
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER QPF OUTPUT IS VERY LIMITED TO NIL, SO IT
APPEARS THAT THE STILL LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE WEAKNESS OF THE
TROUGH WILL LIMIT ANY SORT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME "EXCITING"
WEATHER IN AN OTHERWISE QUIET PATTERN.
FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR THAT UPPER
LOW TO BE REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASING 500
MB HEIGHTS AND WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW, RESULTING IN REGION-WIDE
WARMING. THERE DOES REMAIN A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THAT MOUNTAIN
FOCUSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
AVIATION
17/0029Z.
AT 2337Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 3300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CAT CHANGES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR VFR
TRANSITIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LOW VFR CIGS MAY NOT
SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATS
CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY +/- 3 HOURS. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF AN
EAST WIND COMPONENT OF 6-8 KTS 09-19Z THURSDAY.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATS
CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY +/- 3 HOURS.
MARINE
16/105 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TO
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, MOST
PREVALENT AND LONG-LASTING FOR THE WATERS WEST AND SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. EXPECT STEEP, CHOPPY SEAS WITH THE SCA CONDITIONS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF POINT SAL, GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THEN SCA WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS S OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, FOR
THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF SCA
WIND GUSTS FRIDAY EVENING, A 50% CHANCE OF THESE GUSTS MONDAY
EVENING, AND A 30% CHANCE OF THESE GUSTS SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWIS
AVIATION...KL
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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