136
FXUS66 KLOX 170949
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
249 AM PDT THU SEP 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
17/249 AM.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A ROBUST MARINE LAYER TODAY. SLIGHT WARMING AND
A SHRINKING MARINE LAYER ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
17/249 AM.
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL
BE VERY UNREMARKABLE. THE ONLY REAL THING OF NOTE IS THAT THE
WEATHER IS NOT VERY "SEPTEMBER-LIKE" AT ALL.
TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SW SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CA. HGTS WILL BE NEAR 586
DAM TODAY AND THEN RISE TO 588 DAM ON FRIDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE N/S DIRECTION IN THE MORNING, BUT IT WILL SWITCH TO WEAK
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. A VERY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS COVERING THE CSTS AND VLYS. THE LACK
OF AN EDDY AND THE OFFSHORE PUSH FROM THE NORTH WILL REDUCE THE
AMOUNT OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING. TODAY'S
MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY'S AND WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BLO NORMAL. FRIDAY WILL SEE 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COASTAL HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH 80S IN THE
VLYS.
A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE IS SET TO MOVE OVER THE STATE ON SATURDAY.
OFFSHORE TRENDS AND INCREASED HGTS WILL FURTHER REDUCE THE MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. MORE SUNSHINE, LESS ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER HGTS WILL
ALL COMBINE TO BOOST MAX TEMPS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES. DESPITE THE
WARMING MOST MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES UNDER NORMALS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
17/249 AM.
ALL MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGH HGT (578 DAM) DRY UPPER LOW
PASSAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR THIS
PASSAGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER STRATUS AND 2 TO 3
DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY. THERE IS A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHC THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD FIND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME MTN
CONVECTION, BUT THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY SEEN BY A SCANT FEW OF THE
ENSEMBLES. IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR IT IS VERY MOST LIKELY
ONLY TO BE MORNING DRIZZLE.
SRN CA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE WA
CST AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER TX. HGTS WILL END UP AROUND 587 DAM.
THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AND THIS SHOULD KICK
OFF A TWO DAY WARMING TREND WITH MOST SITES SEEING 3 TO 6 DEGREES
OF WARMING EACH DAY. THIS WARM UP SHOULD BRING MOST MAX TEMPS UP
TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
17/0949Z.
AT 0832Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 3600 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE IN REMAINING TAFS. CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN 025 AND 035.
LOW VFR CIGS MAY NOT SCATTER OUT UNTIL 18/00Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN 025 AND
035 THROUGH 20Z. BKN035 CONDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. THERE IS A
15% CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND COMPONENT OF 6-8 KTS 09Z-16Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN 025 AND
035 THROUGH 20Z. BKN035 CONDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 00Z.
MARINE
17/127 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE
TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, MOST
PREVALENT AND LONG-LASTING FOR THE WATERS WEST AND SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. EXPECT STEEP, CHOPPY SEAS WITH THE SCA CONDITIONS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF POINT SAL, GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THEN SCA WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS S OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS
FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, FOR THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF SCA WIND GUSTS
FRIDAY EVENING, A 50% CHANCE OF THESE GUSTS MONDAY EVENING, AND A
30% CHANCE OF THESE GUSTS SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...SIRARD/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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