100
FXUS66 KLOX 172051
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
151 PM PDT THU SEP 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
17/125 PM.
SLIGHT WARMING AND A SHRINKING MARINE LAYER ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3-6 DEGREES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
17/135 PM.
NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST RESULTING IN A MINOR WARMING TREND FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, THEN LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY, THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL JUST BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL EITHER WAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN ALL DIRECTIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE'S A GOOD
CHANCE THAT MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION
WILL BE MUCH LESS STARTING FRIDAY, THOUGH STILL EXPECTING MORNING
STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
17/150 PM.
ANOTHER LITTLE TROUGH MOVES IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND BUT PROBABLY NOT THAT NOTICEABLE. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL BE THE LIKELY RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TO
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 1-3 DEGREES OF COOLING AREA-WIDE.
THE PENDULUM WILL SWING BACK TOWARDS WARMING BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT AGAIN NOTHING DRAMATIC IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S, WHICH
IS BASICALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHILE DOWNTOWN LA
AND OTHER INLAND COASTAL AREAS GET BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WHICH AGAIN IS CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENTS NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT MID TO LATE WEEK WHERE
THERE IS 40-50% CHANCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SUNDOWNERS IN THE SANTA
BARBARA AREA.
AVIATION
17/1753Z.
AT 1716Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 3900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING SITES. MVFR TO VFR CIGS SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 20Z. THERE IS A 30% FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSBA AFTER 15Z.
30% CHANCE FOR NO CIGS AT KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, AND KBUR TONIGHT. 10%
CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS AT KPRB/KSBP/KSMX LATE TONIGHT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN 025 AND
035 THROUGH 20Z. BKN035 CONDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT LIKELY BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 KT.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY VARY BETWEEN 025 AND
035 THROUGH 20Z. BKN035 CONDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. 30% CHANCE
FOR NO CIGS TONIGHT.
MARINE
17/142 PM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY TYPICAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF POINT SAL, THEN HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. CHOPPY, SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL DEVELOP.
SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THERE IS
A 40-60% CHANCE FOR SCA WINDS SPREADING TO EASTERN PORTIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY (IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS). LOCAL GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOT WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE
SAN PEDRO CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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