860
FXUS66 KLOX 180253
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
753 PM PDT THU SEP 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
17/740 PM.
SLIGHT WARMING AND A SHRINKING MARINE LAYER ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS LIKELY THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
17/135 PM.
NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST RESULTING IN A MINOR WARMING TREND FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, THEN LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY, THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL JUST BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL EITHER WAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN ALL DIRECTIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE'S A GOOD
CHANCE THAT MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION
WILL BE MUCH LESS STARTING FRIDAY, THOUGH STILL EXPECTING MORNING
STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
17/150 PM.
ANOTHER LITTLE TROUGH MOVES IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND BUT PROBABLY NOT THAT NOTICEABLE. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL BE THE LIKELY RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TO
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 1-3 DEGREES OF COOLING AREA-WIDE.
THE PENDULUM WILL SWING BACK TOWARDS WARMING BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT AGAIN NOTHING DRAMATIC IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S, WHICH
IS BASICALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHILE DOWNTOWN LA
AND OTHER INLAND COASTAL AREAS GET BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WHICH AGAIN IS CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENTS NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT MID TO LATE WEEK WHERE
THERE IS 40-50% CHANCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SUNDOWNERS IN THE SANTA
BARBARA AREA.
AVIATION
18/0252Z.
AT 1716Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2000 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING SITES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE CENTRAL COAST AND LA COASTAL SITES, AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
KSBA, KOXR, KBUR AND KVNY WHERE THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY LIKELY MVFR IF THEY OCCUR. 10% CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDS AT KPRB/KSBP/KSMX LATE TONIGHT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. RETURN OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT LIKELY BETWEEN 08Z TO 12Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 KT.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. 20-30% CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z-16Z FRI.
MARINE
17/142 PM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY TYPICAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF POINT SAL, THEN HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. CHOPPY, SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL DEVELOP.
SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THERE IS
A 40-60% CHANCE FOR SCA WINDS SPREADING TO EASTERN PORTIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY (IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS). LOCAL GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOT WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE
SAN PEDRO CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...CILIBERTI
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/KL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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