977
FXUS66 KLOX 180333
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
833 PM PDT THU SEP 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
17/740 PM.
SLIGHT WARMING AND A SHRINKING MARINE LAYER ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS LIKELY THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
17/808 PM.
***UPDATE***
YET ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE BOOKS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AND 80S - ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. TYPICAL BREEZY, SUB-ADVISORY, ONSHORE AFTERNOON
WINDS PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY, HIGHEST ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS, AND NORTH-NORTHWEST SUB-ADVISORY
SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE OCCURING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LIMITED MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS, WITH CLOUDS REALLY ONLY LOCATED WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
CATALINA ISLAND. THIS DOES POTENTIALLY PUT A WRINKLE IN THE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MORNING SKY FORECAST, WITH CLOUDS SLOW TO ARRIVE
ALONG THE COASTS. WITH THE DECREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTH AND LACK OF A STRONG EDDY, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OUT OF THE VALLEYS, AND MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COASTS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS WELL.
QUICKER CLEARING (IF CLOUDS DO REACH THE COAST), AND A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING, WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE 70S AND 80S, IS STILL
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
BESIDES THE SKY COVERAGE, NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST RESULTING IN A MINOR WARMING TREND FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, THEN LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY, THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL JUST BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL EITHER WAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN ALL DIRECTIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE'S A GOOD
CHANCE THAT MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION
WILL BE MUCH LESS STARTING FRIDAY, THOUGH STILL EXPECTING MORNING
STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
17/150 PM.
ANOTHER LITTLE TROUGH MOVES IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND BUT PROBABLY NOT THAT NOTICEABLE. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL BE THE LIKELY RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TO
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 1-3 DEGREES OF COOLING AREA-WIDE.
THE PENDULUM WILL SWING BACK TOWARDS WARMING BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT AGAIN NOTHING DRAMATIC IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S, WHICH
IS BASICALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHILE DOWNTOWN LA
AND OTHER INLAND COASTAL AREAS GET BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WHICH AGAIN IS CLOSE TO NORMAL. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENTS NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT MID TO LATE WEEK WHERE
THERE IS 40-50% CHANCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SUNDOWNERS IN THE SANTA
BARBARA AREA.
AVIATION
18/0252Z.
AT 1716Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2000 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 4900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING SITES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE CENTRAL COAST AND LA COASTAL SITES, AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
KSBA, KOXR, KBUR AND KVNY WHERE THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY LIKELY MVFR IF THEY OCCUR. 10% CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDS AT KPRB/KSBP/KSMX LATE TONIGHT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. RETURN OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT LIKELY BETWEEN 08Z TO 12Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 KT.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. 20-30% CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z-16Z FRI.
MARINE
17/822 PM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY TYPICAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
POINT SAL, THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. CHOPPY, SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL DEVELOP.
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN A 40-60% CHANCE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOT WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE SAN
PEDRO CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/KL
AVIATION...CILIBERTI
MARINE...LEWIS/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/KL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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