975
FXUS66 KLOX 180844
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
144 AM PDT FRI SEP 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
17/740 PM.
SLIGHT WARMING AND A SHRINKING MARINE LAYER ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS LIKELY THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
18/142 AM.
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO HAZARD
PRODUCTS EXPECTED. WARMEST ON SATURDAY, PUSHING CLOSE TO 90S FOR
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY SALINAS AND ANTELOPE VALLEYS.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS MAY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE LA BASIN ON
SAT, AND MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL OF AM CLOUDS
REACHING INTO SAN GABRIEL/SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
18/142 AM.
A SMALL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THIS FEATURE IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, BUT A WEAKER
PORTION IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT AND BECOME STATIONARY, CENTERING
ITSELF OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS BY MID-WEEK. THIS PUTS
LA/VTA COUNTIES IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THESE
PARAMETERS ALONG WITH LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. DETAILS AT
THIS TIME ARE BLURRY, BUT THE SIGNAL IS STRONGEST ACROSS TYPICALLY
FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SOME ACROSS THE AREA, AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE SOME OVER THE LA
BASIN.
AVIATION
18/0538Z.
AT 0453Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A WEAK INVERSION AT 4100 FT. THE TOP
WAS AT 4700 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 16 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
FOR KPRB, KSBP, & KSMX: TIMING OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
OFF +/- 3 HRS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS BY ONE CATEGORY.
HAVE TAKEN ALL MVFR/LOW-VFR CIGS OUT OF THE FCST, HOWEVER
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF THESE CLOUDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT
UNLIKELY.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE TAKEN MVFR CIGS
OUT OF FCST BUT INTERMITTENT PERIODS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT
UNLIKELY. LEANING TOWARDS MOSTLY VFR FOR THE PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW CHC OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGH 18/15Z (LIKELY
BRIEF IF OCCURS). NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
17/822 PM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY TYPICAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
POINT SAL, THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. CHOPPY, SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL DEVELOP.
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN A 40-60% CHANCE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOT WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE SAN
PEDRO CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...LEWIS/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/KL
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