182
FXUS66 KLOX 060048
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
548 PM PDT MON OCT 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
05/1246 PM.
A MAJOR AND LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE WILL TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES, THOUGH SOME
COOLING IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER EACH DAY AND THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE RACHEL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
05/158 PM.
IT WAS ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY TODAY WITH MANY AREAS OVER 100,
PARTICULARLY IN LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT ONSHORE
TREND DEVELOPED AND WAS JUST ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN HIGHS AT THE
BEACHES AND SOME INLAND COASTAL AREAS. FOR EXAMPLE, CAMARILLO
REACHED A HIGH OF 99 JUST BEFORE NOON, BUT BY 1PM THE TEMPERATURE
WAS "ONLY" 90, WHICH WAS 9 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. MEANWHILE, IT WAS ANOTHER 102 IN DOWNTOWN LA WHICH IS THE
4TH DAY OF 100 OR HIGHER THERE (WHICH IS THE LONGEST SUCH STRETCH
IN OCTOBER, AND TIES THE RECORD FOR ANY TIME OF YEAR).
IT'S GOING TO REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT AS WE
NOTICED TODAY THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES, RESULTING IN 1-5 DEGREES OF COOLING.
ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY BE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE THAT
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 90S TUE AND WED. FOR INLAND AREAS
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FLAT OR POSSIBLY 1-2 DEGREES
OF COOLING FOR AREAS BELOW 500 FEET ELEVATION AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND GRADIENTS REMAIN 1-3MB OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
05/207 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN BY AROUND FRIDAY BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL BE 6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH WARMER VALLEY
HIGHS AROUND 100 AND DOWNTOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
A MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA. THAT UPPER LOW MAY PULL UP MOISTURE FROM RACHEL,
DEPENDING ON RACHEL'S TRACK, SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY, MAINLY LA COUNTY.
AVIATION
06/0047Z.
AT 0020Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SFC BASED
INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 1500 FT AND A TEMP OF 32 C.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSMX WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC NO
CLOUDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT
FAIR CONFIDENCE KSBP THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHC OF VLIFR CONDS FOR
A FEW HOURS 12Z-16Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CAVU TAFS.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT WILL BE AOB 6KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.
MARINE
05/245 PM.
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
GUSTS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN POINT
CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND, OFF THE COAST OF POINT DUME,
AND ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A 30%
CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AND POINT CONCEPTION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHES
05/244 PM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE RACHEL WILL IMPACT THE LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES COASTLINE INCLUDING CATALINA ISLAND STARTING
LATE TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING 4
PM TUESDAY AND WILL TRANSITION TO AN A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIALLY, THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL BE SE (150-160) TUESDAY
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY (170-190) WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. AS RACHEL
CONTINUES WESTWARD, THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY (170-190) BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
EVENTS, MORNING AND EVENING HIGH TIDES WILL BE SIMILAR IN HEIGHT
RANGING 6.5 - 7.0 FT. COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE GREATEST FOR LONG BEACH, CATALINA ISLAND, AND MALIBU/ZUMA
BEACH.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TIDES WILL BE VERY HIGH (7+ FEET)
AND A COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY SWELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR COASTLINE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT COASTAL FLOODING
AND SURF IMPACTS, BUT THERE IS A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM
PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
341>345-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...CILIBERTI/SCHOENFELD
BEACHES...SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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