416
FXUS66 KLOX 061702
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1002 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
06/236 AM.
A MAJOR AND LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE WILL TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES, THOUGH SOME
COOLING IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER EACH DAY AND THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE RACHEL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
06/854 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, THOUGH OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER BY 1.2MB THIS MORNING SO THAT SHOULD CREATE
AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL ONSHORE PUSH BEYOND WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY. IT'S ALWAYS TRICKY IN THESE SITUATIONS WHEN THERE IS A
LITTLE ONSHORE PUSH DETERMINING HOW FAR INLAND THAT COOLING WILL
REACH SO CONFIDENCE WITH SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW. MOST AREAS ARE
STARTING OFF COOLER, AND IN SOME CASES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES COOLER, WITH COASTAL AREAS AS MUCH AS 4-8
DEGREES COOLER. THE CENTRAL COAST MAY BE AN EXCEPTION BECAUSE
THERE IS A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THAT MAY CREATE SOME
DOWNSLOPE WARMING OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS THAT WOULD LEAD TO SOME
WARMING.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THIS LONG LASTING AND DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
7 RECORDS WERE BROKEN YDY: DTLA (104 VS 101), BURBANK (TIE AT
102), WOODLAND HILLS (106 VS 105), LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIE AT
104), LAX (TIE AT 101), CAMARILLO (99 VS 98) AND OXNARD (98 VS
94).
IT WAS THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF MAX TEMPS 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER
AT THE DTLA SITE. THIS IS THE RECORD FOR OCTOBER AND IT LOOKS LIKE
THAT RECORD WILL BE XTND BY 1 MAYBE TWO DAYS.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER SRN CA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HGTS WILL RANGE FROM 588 DAM TO 590 DAM. AT THE SFC
THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING AND WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THE MDLS HAVE NOT BEEN
HANDLING THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST THAT WELL OVER THE
PAST THREE DAYS AND THIS HAS LED TO SOME FORECAST ERRORS. SO THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FCST THAN USUAL.
TODAY'S TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAYS WITH MOSTLY 90S
FOR THE COASTS (MID 80S TO LOWER 90S CENTRAL COAST) AND 100 TO 105
IN THE VLYS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THE
CSTS AND VLYS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AS AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES, BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES UP THERE. INLAND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE
EACH DAY.
ON THURSDAY LOOK FOR 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF COOLING AS THE MORNING
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
THIS COOLING WILL LOWER VLY TEMPS TO 98 TO 102 DEGREES. DESPITE
THE COOLING MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE MAKING A SLIGHT RETURN ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING ESP ALONG THE WESTERN SBA COAST.
THERE ARE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLOUDS HUGGING THE CENTRAL
COAST AND NEARSHORE AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE MORNING.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
05/207 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN BY AROUND FRIDAY BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL BE 6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH WARMER VALLEY
HIGHS AROUND 100 AND DOWNTOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
A MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA. THAT UPPER LOW MAY PULL UP MOISTURE FROM RACHEL,
DEPENDING ON RACHEL'S TRACK, SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY, MAINLY LA COUNTY.
AVIATION
06/1701Z.
AT 1603Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SFC
BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 1800 FT AND A TEMP OF 29 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR,
KVNY, KPMD, & KWJF, WITH A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE LIFR-IFR CONDS FOR
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SITES FROM 14Z-17Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR REMAINING COASTAL SITES.
15% CHANCE FOR VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT KSMX/KSBP. 20% CHANCE FOR
BRIEF LIFR-IFR CONDS 13Z-17Z AT KLAX, KLGB, & KSMO.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 15% CHANCE FOR LIFR-IFR (004-008)
13Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT WILL BE AOB
6KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.
MARINE
06/751 AM.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) GUSTS
MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR AN SCA
TO BE ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND 10+ FOOT SEAS ARE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, REMNANT MOISTURE FROM CURRENT HURRICANE
RACHEL WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WATERS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF POINT
CONCPETION.
BEACHES
06/759 AM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE RACHEL WILL IMPACT THE LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES COASTLINE INCLUDING CATALINA ISLAND STARTING
LATE TONIGHT. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING 4
PM TODAY AND WILL TRANSITION TO AN A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIALLY, THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL BE SE (150-160) AND BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY (170-190) WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UNLIKE
PREVIOUS EVENTS, MORNING AND EVENING HIGH TIDES WILL BE SIMILAR IN
HEIGHT RANGING 6.5 TO 7.0 FT. COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATEST FOR LONG BEACH (ESPECIALLY ALAMITOS
PENINSULA), CATALINA ISLAND, AND THE MALIBU/ZUMA BEACH COAST.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TIDES WILL BE VERY HIGH (7+ FEET)
AND A COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY SWELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR COASTLINE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT COASTAL FLOODING
AND SURF IMPACTS, BUT THERE IS A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM
PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
341>345-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...RORKE/MW
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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