612
FXUS66 KLOX 062059
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
159 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
06/1252 PM.
A MAJOR AND LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE WILL TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES, THOUGH SOME
COOLING IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER EACH DAY AND THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
RACHEL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
06/119 PM.
THE BAD NEWS IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WEST COAST, GENERATING DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY AND IN MANY AREAS VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS
WELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ONSHORE FLOW IS SLOWLY RETURNING AND
MOST AREAS (NOT THE CENTRAL COAST) WILL SEE AT LEAST A 1-3 DEGREE
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COASTAL AREAS HAVE
ALREADY FELT THIS TODAY WHERE HIGHS PEAKED 3-6 DEGREES DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE ANY COOLING TOMORROW
WILL STILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION WHILE VALLEYS AND OTHER INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE
OR NO CHANGE. AND FOR THE CENTRAL COAST, A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THAT WILL CREATE SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS THAT SHOULD ACTUALLY CREATE 3-6
DEGREES OF WARMING. ALL PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HEAT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, THOUGH
IT'S POSSIBLE SOME COASTAL AREAS COULD DROP OFF AFTER WEDNESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR ALL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT WELL
BELOW CRITERIA FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
06/143 PM.
THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL SEE A VERY QUICK REVERSAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS AN
INCREASING NUMBER OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING REMNANT MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM RACHEL MOVING UP INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD FOR SOME TIME BUT
GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL
MOVING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN BEFORE, AND POTENTIALLY A
550DAM LOW ARRIVING AROUND THE SAME TIME SUNDAY OR MONDAY, THERE
IS AT LEAST A 5-10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. BY MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
70S, 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
06/1701Z.
AT 1603Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SFC
BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 1800 FT AND A TEMP OF 29 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR,
KVNY, KPMD, & KWJF, WITH A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE LIFR-IFR CONDS FOR
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SITES FROM 14Z-17Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR REMAINING COASTAL SITES.
15% CHANCE FOR VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT KSMX/KSBP. 20% CHANCE FOR
BRIEF LIFR-IFR CONDS 13Z-17Z AT KLAX, KLGB, & KSMO.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 15% CHANCE FOR LIFR-IFR (004-008)
13Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT WILL BE AOB
6KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.
MARINE
06/134 PM.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) GUSTS MAY
OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND.
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS (10+ FOOT OFF CENTRAL
COAST) ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, REMNANT MOISTURE FROM CURRENT HURRICANE RACHEL WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF POINT CONCPETION.
BEACHES
06/133 PM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE RACHEL WILL IMPACT THE LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES COASTLINE INCLUDING CATALINA ISLAND STARTING
THIS EVENING. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING 4
PM TODAY AND WILL TRANSITION TO AN A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIALLY, THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL BE MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
(150-160) TONIGHT, TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY (170-190) WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS EVENTS, MORNING AND EVENING HIGH
TIDES WILL BE SIMILAR IN HEIGHT RANGING 6.5 TO 7.0 FT. COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATEST FOR LONG BEACH
(ESPECIALLY ALAMITOS PENINSULA), CATALINA ISLAND (WHILE THE SWELL
IS SSE), AND THE MALIBU/ZUMA BEACH COAST.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TIDES WILL BE VERY HIGH (7+ FEET)
AND A COMBINATION OF MULTIPLE LONGER AND SHORTER PERIOD SWELLS
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR COASTLINE OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDES OF THESE SWELLS, THUS
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT COASTAL FLOODING AND SURF
IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM
PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
341>345-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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