731
FXUS66 KLOX 070329
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
829 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
06/1252 PM.
A MAJOR AND LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE WILL TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES, THOUGH SOME
COOLING IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER EACH DAY AND THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
RACHEL.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
06/827 PM.
***UPDATE***
AS EXPECTED, TODAY WAS ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER,
BUT STILL VERY WARM. SURPRISINGLY ONLY ONE RECORD WAS TIED TODAY,
A HIGH OF 101 AT BOB HOPE AIRPORT.
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME STRATUS/FOG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BEACHES. CURRENT SOUNDING DATA INDICATES MARINE
INVERSION AROUND 700 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SURFACE
BASED SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING
25-35 MPH, ARE OBSERVED ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED. STRATUS/DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING
ON THE AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST, A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HOWEVER WILL LET THE NIGHT SHIFT MONITOR
THAT POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM,
CONTINUING THE HEAT CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL, CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.
SO, NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE BAD NEWS IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WEST COAST, GENERATING DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY AND IN MANY AREAS VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS
WELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ONSHORE FLOW IS SLOWLY RETURNING AND
MOST AREAS (NOT THE CENTRAL COAST) WILL SEE AT LEAST A 1-3 DEGREE
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COASTAL AREAS HAVE
ALREADY FELT THIS TODAY WHERE HIGHS PEAKED 3-6 DEGREES DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE ANY COOLING TOMORROW
WILL STILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION WHILE VALLEYS AND OTHER INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE
OR NO CHANGE. AND FOR THE CENTRAL COAST, A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THAT WILL CREATE SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS THAT SHOULD ACTUALLY CREATE 3-6
DEGREES OF WARMING. ALL PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HEAT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, THOUGH
IT'S POSSIBLE SOME COASTAL AREAS COULD DROP OFF AFTER WEDNESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR ALL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT WELL
BELOW CRITERIA FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
06/143 PM.
THE ENTIRE WEST COAST WILL SEE A VERY QUICK REVERSAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS AN
INCREASING NUMBER OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING REMNANT MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM RACHEL MOVING UP INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD FOR SOME TIME BUT
GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL
MOVING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN BEFORE, AND POTENTIALLY A
550DAM LOW ARRIVING AROUND THE SAME TIME SUNDAY OR MONDAY, THERE
IS AT LEAST A 5-10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EITHER OR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. BY MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
70S, 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
06/2232Z.
AT 2230Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU CONDITIONS FOR MOST
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KSBP AND
KSMX WHERE THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
06Z-16Z TIME FRAME.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS
ANTICIPATED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF AS CAVU CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
06/815 PM.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) GUSTS MAY
OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS (NORTH OF POINT SAL)
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTH TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND.
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS (10+ FOOT OFF CENTRAL
COAST) ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, REMNANT MOISTURE FROM CURRENT HURRICANE RACHEL WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
BEACHES
06/812 PM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE RACHEL WILL IMPACT THE LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES COASTLINE INCLUDING CATALINA ISLAND THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL TRANSITION TO AN A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIALLY, THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL BE MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
(150-160) TONIGHT AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY (170-190) WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS EVENTS, MORNING AND EVENING HIGH
TIDES WILL BE SIMILAR IN HEIGHT RANGING 6.5 TO 7.0 FT. COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATEST FOR LONG BEACH
(ESPECIALLY ALAMITOS PENINSULA), CATALINA ISLAND (WHILE THE SWELL
IS SSE), AND THE MALIBU/ZUMA BEACH COAST.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TIDES WILL BE VERY HIGH (7+ FEET)
AND A COMBINATION OF MULTIPLE LONGER AND SHORTER PERIOD SWELLS
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR COASTLINE OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDES OF THESE SWELLS, THUS
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT COASTAL FLOODING AND SURF
IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM
PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
341>345-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/THOMPSON
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...LEWIS/KL
BEACHES...LEWIS/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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