509
FXUS66 KLOX 071734
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1034 AM PDT WED OCT 7 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
07/905 AM.
A MAJOR AND LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES, THOUGH SOME COOLING
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE RACHEL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
07/904 AM.
***UPDATE***
NO IMPACTFUL CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING, AS THE HEAT
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST. WATCHING THE TRACK UPDATES ON
RACHEL AS IT IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE AREA
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST, INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE BIG DOME OF HOT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY IT WILL BE NOTHING MORE THAN A WEAK 582 DAM
RIDGE. AT THE SFC THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE EACH DAY (EXCEPT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE).
THIS COMBINATION OF LOWERING HGTS AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KICK OFF A THREE DAY COOLING TREND ESP ON THU AND FRI. TODAY THE
CSTS AND PORTIONS OF THE VLYS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL SEE
ABOUT 4 DEGREES OF COOLING. THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAD TO 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY.
THE COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE HEAT RISK WITH
MOSTLY 90S ACROSS THE COASTS AND 98 TO 105 IN THE VLYS. THERE IS
ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHC OF DTLA REACHING A TEMP OF 100 OR MORE
DEGREES TODAY AND THE NEW OCTOBER FOR CONSECUTIVE TRIPLE DIGIT
DAYS WILL LIKELY END AT 5.
MOST AREAS WILL COOL 2 TO 4 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. NOTICEABLE
COOLING ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, LOOK FOR 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS IS ENOUGH COOLING TO ELIMINATE THE HEAT
RISK.
THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THIS MORNING, JUST
SOME AROUND THE SLO AND WESTERN SBA BEACHES ACCOMPANIED BY DENSE
FOG. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION
AND THERE WILL BE MORE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS
WELL. THIS INCREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING WHERE
MOST COASTAL AREAS WILL WAKE UP TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
07/230 AM.
A DRAMATIC SWITCH IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
EARLY SEASON COLD UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO
THE WEST COAST. IT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE LARGE TROF AND BY SUNDAY
HGT COULD DROP TO 565 DAM. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AS THERE WILL BE
A MUCH MORE ROBUST MARINE LAYER STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE CSTS AND
SOME VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND AN
ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY'S MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE
CSTS/VLYS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S AND THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE NOTHING BUT 60S. SUNDAY'S MAX TEMPS WILL BE
3 TO 6 LOCALLY 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT MOISTURE FROM RACHEL'S REMNANTS WILL
INTERACT WITH THE TROF AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO LA COUNTY WITH A
BETTER CHC FROM THE OC SOUTHWARD.
ON MONDAY THE TROF WILL PINCH OFF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THE DAY. HGTS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 562
DAM. THIS LOW AND THE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHC OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND A 5-10% CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WHILE SLO/SBA/VTA COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN, LA COUNTY (ESP THE EASTERN
PORTION) COULD SEE UP TO .75 INCHES OF RAIN. THE UPPER LOW, THE
CLOUDS AND THE RAIN WILL BRING ANOTHER 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF COOLING
TO MOST AREAS (LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST) AND HIGHS
WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE UPPER LOW AND MOISTURE SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AND AREA SHOULD BE DRY AND ABOUT 4 DEGREES WARMER (STILL 5
TO 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL)
AVIATION
07/1731Z.
AT 1700Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 400 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 29 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD, KWJF, KPRB, KBUR, & KVNY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN KSBP/KSMX. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIG FORECAST FOR KOXR/KCMA WITH A 30-40% CHANCE
LIFR/IFR DO NOT DEVELOP.
FOR KLAX/KLGB, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE LIFR OR IFR CIGS FROM
08/10-16Z. 20% CHC FOR KSMO.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF THRU 08/06Z. 30-40% CHC FOR
CIGS 005 (+/- 300 FT) FROM 08/10-16Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS ANTICIPATED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
07/827 AM.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) GUSTS MAY
OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS (NORTH OF POINT SAL)
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTH TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND.
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS (10+ FOOT OFF CENTRAL
COAST) ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, REMNANT MOISTURE FROM CURRENT HURRICANE RACHEL WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, FOCUSED SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
BEACHES
07/230 AM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE RACHEL WILL IMPACT THE LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES COASTLINE INCLUDING CATALINA ISLAND THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL START TO TURN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
(150-160) TO MORE SOUTHERLY (170-190) OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS EVENTS, MORNING AND EVENING HIGH
TIDES WILL BE SIMILAR IN HEIGHT RANGING 6.5 TO 7.0 FT. COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATEST FOR LONG BEACH
(ESPECIALLY ALAMITOS PENINSULA), CATALINA ISLAND (WHILE THE SWELL
IS SSE), AND THE MALIBU/ZUMA BEACH COAST.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TIDES WILL BE VERY HIGH (7+ FEET)
AND A COMBINATION OF MULTIPLE LONGER AND SHORTER PERIOD SWELLS
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR COASTLINE OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDES OF THESE SWELLS, THUS
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT COASTAL FLOODING AND SURF
IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
340>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...LEWIS/KL
BEACHES...LEWIS/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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