185
FXUS66 KLOX 072137
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
237 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
07/905 AM.
A MAJOR AND LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES, THOUGH SOME COOLING
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE RACHEL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
07/221 PM.
SYNOPTICALLY, A 590 DAM HIGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAY AREA THROUGH
MEXICO TO OUR SOUTHEAST. BY SATURDAY, THAT HIGH HAS MOVED EAST TO
TEXAS AND A LARGE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST,
ALLOWING THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST
(RACHEL) TO TURN TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. WHILE THE TROPICAL
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA, PERIPHERAL MOISTURE AND SWELLS
COULD BRING A RAINY WEEKEND WITH COASTAL IMPACTS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AND THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY IT WILL BE NOTHING MORE THAN A WEAK RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE EACH DAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST. THIS COMBINATION OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KICK OFF A THREE-DAY COOLING TREND,
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
THE COOLING TODAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE HEAT RISK
WITH MOSTLY 90S ACROSS THE COASTS, AND 98 TO 105 IN THE VALLEYS.
IT ONLY HAS REACHED 96 SO FAR TODAY IN DOWNTOWN LA, SO THE
CONSECUTIVE TRIPLE DIGIT DAY STREAK WILL LIKELY END AT 5.
MOST AREAS WILL COOL 2 TO 4 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. MORE NOTICEABLE
COOLING ARRIVES ON FRIDAY; 4 TO 8 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO FINALLY ELIMINATE THE HEAT RISK.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND
THERE WILL BE MORE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL.
THIS INCREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING WHERE MOST
COASTAL AREAS WILL WAKE UP TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
RACHEL, BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND
CONTINUED COOLING. LIGHT RAIN COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING IN LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES, BUT MORE REALISTICALLY IT WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
07/231 PM.
AN EARLY SEASON COLD UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
INTO THE WEST COAST, DEVELOPING INTO A LARGE TROF AND BY SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A MUCH MORE ROBUST
MARINE LAYER STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE COASTS AND SOME VALLEYS.
MAX TEMPS WILL DROP AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY'S MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S AND THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE
NOTHING BUT 60S.
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF RAIN FROM RACHEL'S MOISTURE IS 9AM
SUNDAY THROUGH 9AM MONDAY IN LA AND VENTURA COUNTY. SOME LIGHT
RAIN COULD EXTEND INTO SANTA BARBARA AND SLO COUNTIES AS WELL.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. HGTS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 562 DAM. THIS LOW AND THE
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A 5-10%
CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY.
WHILE SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF RAIN, VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE
0.5" THE MOST RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD GET UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THE
UPPER LOW, THE CLOUDS AND THE RAIN WILL BRING ANOTHER 3 OR 4
DEGREES OF COOLING TO MOST AREAS AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.
RAIN SHOULD END BY TUESDAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING ARE
EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND DOWNTOWN LA SHOULD BE IN
THE MID-70S BY THEN.
AVIATION
07/2125Z.
AT 1700Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 400 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 29 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD, KWJF, KPRB, KBUR, & KVNY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN KSBP/KSMX. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIG FORECAST FOR KOXR/KCMA WITH A 30-40% CHANCE
LIFR/IFR DO NOT DEVELOP.
FOR KLAX/KLGB, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE LIFR OR IFR CIGS FROM
08/10-16Z. 20% CHC FOR KSMO.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF THRU 08/06Z. 30-40% CHC FOR
CIGS 005 (+/- 300 FT) FROM 08/10-16Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS ANTICIPATED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
07/225 PM.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) GUSTS MAY
OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS (NORTH OF POINT SAL)
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTH TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RACHEL FOCUSED ACROSS THE WATERS
ADJACENT TO LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES. THERE IS STILL A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDING TO THE SYSTEMS
FINAL TRACK WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT DETAILS. THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS RACHEL WELL
TO THE SOUTH WHICH WOULD LIMIT IMPACTS. HOWEVER, STRONG SCA W-SW
WINDS ARE STILL A CERTAINITY AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
TROUGH WITH A 20% CHANCE OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION, INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SEAS (10+ FOOT) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
BEACHES
07/225 PM.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SWELLS INCLUDING FROM HURRICANE RACHEL
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LA/VTA COASTLINE. 180-190 AT
12 SECONDS WILL POSE THE MOST RISK FROM MALIBU TO VENTURA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LONG BEACH AREA IS ALSO AT A RELATIVELY
HIGHER RISK DUE TO VULNERABILITIES FROM PREVIOUS COASTAL EVENTS.
HIGH TIDES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR IN HEIGHT AT 6.5-7.0 FT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND WITH A 0.3 FT REDUCTION IN THE EVENING TIDES ON
FRIDAY.
HURRICANE RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST AND WILL PICK UP
IN MOVEMENT SPEED LIKELY MAKING LANDFALL SUNDAY SOMEWHERE IN
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE MEXICO UNITED
STATES BORDER (AS A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM). THE EXACT TRACK WILL
BECOME MORE CLEAR LIKELY IN A DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO
THE NORTHEAST. DEVIATIONS IN THE FINAL TRACK COULD INFLUENCE THE
MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS FOR THE AREA. THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME WILL LIKELY HAVE CONSIDERABLE TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE BEACHES SUCH AS LONG BEACH. THE TIME
WINDOW FOR MOST CONCERN IS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE.
THE TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 7.5 FT (+/- 0.5 FT). IF RACHEL TAKES A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASED WIND WAVE
AND LOWER SFC PRESSURE WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER TIDES- VICE VERSA.
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST, HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SOME
BEACH EROSION AND ISOLATED, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
REFER TO CFWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS AND PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
340>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE/JLD
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
BEACHES...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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