996
FXUS66 KLOX 081753
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1053 AM PDT THU OCT 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
08/242 AM.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE.
ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY THEY WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE RACHEL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
08/943 AM.
***UPDATE***
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF ANY LINGERING HEAT HAZARDS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAVE FINALLY CROSSED OVER TO LIGHTLY ONSHORE AS OF THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST 1-3 DEGREES
COOLER, BUT AS MUCH AS 4-8 DEGREES COOLER CLOSER TO THE COAST.
RACHEL HAS STARTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, AND WILL SOON
BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW. THE
LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK HAS RACHEL MOVING ONSHORE AT AROUND 150
MILES SOUTH OF THE US/MX BORDER. THERE WILL BE INCREASING IMPACTS
TO BEACH AREAS AS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, PEAKING SUNDAY. AND AS FAR
AS RAIN CHANCES, IT'S STILL LOOKING PRETTY FAVORABLE. IT'S A
LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA JUST
FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE FROM RACHEL. WITH THIS SCENARIO, RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN FIRST IN LA COUNTY WITH RACHEL MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE THE CENTRAL
COAST MONDAY AND MOVING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AMOUNTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME, BUT ANYWHERE FROM JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO A HALF TO
ONE INCH IN PARTS OF LA COUNTY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
CHANGES WILL REALLY BECOME NOTICEABLE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF PT CONCEPTION AND BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE
EAST. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TO 580 DAM. AT THE SAME TIME
AN EARLY SEASON COLD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO WASHINGTON STATE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY ROBUST MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK
COVERING MOST OF THE COASTS AND SOME OF THE LOWER VLYS. MOST TEMPS
WILL FALL BY ABOUT 6 DEGREES, BUT THE NEAR SHORE AREA WILL NOT
SEE MUCH CHANGE AS THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THE BEST COOLING TODAY.
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING ON SATURDAY AS MAJOR TROFFING WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE WEST COAST AND SET UP SW FLOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE STATE AND THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SW FLOW WILL STEER TS
RACHEL TO THE NE AND BY LATE AFTERNOON RACHEL SHOULD BE ~450 S OF
SAN DIEGO. IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY 1ST DUE TO A WIDESPREAD
AND DEEP MARINE LAYER THAT WILL COVER ALL OF THE CSTS AND VLYS AND
THEN DUE TO CLOUDS STREAMING OFF OF RACHEL. SLO AND PORTIONS OF
SBA COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF 574 DAM HGTS , PLENTY OF CLOUDS, A
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING DRAMATIC
COOLING TO THE ENTIRE AREA. LOOK FOR 6 TO 12 DEGREES OF COOLING
ALMOST EVERYWHERE (THE BEACHES OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE
ALREADY COOLED DOWN TODAY AND FRIDAY). MOST COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
COASTAL SECTIONS OF LA COUNTY. THE VLYS WILL ONLY WARM INTO UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S. MOST MAX TEMPS WILL END UP 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL.
ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM RACHEL WILL MOVE UP INTO VTA AND LA COUNTIES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
08/243 AM.
A FAIRLY COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS ON SUNDAY. A VERY
LARGE POS TILT TROF WILL DRAPE ITSELF ACROSS THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST. IT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AT ALL, RATHER A COLD UPPER LOW WILL
PLUNGE TO SW DOWN THE TROF AXIS AND WILL SIT ATOP OF THE BAY AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. HGTS OVER SRN CA WILL FALL TO 565 DAM. ON TOP
(WELL ACTUALLY BELOW) ALL OF THIS TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND WILL SEND A
SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE TROF OVER SRN CA. A CHC OF RAIN WILL
DEVELOP OVER SBA/VTA AND ESP LA COUNTIES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN GENERAL A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR ANY GIVEN 6 HOUR PERIOD DURING THE DAY
WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LA COUNTY. RAINFALL FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT LOOKS TO BE LITTLE OR NOTHING FOR SLO COUNTY,
A TRACE TO .20 FOR SBA COUNTY, A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
FOR VTA COUNTY AND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY
BUT .75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIEL MTNS AND ITS COASTAL FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL ALSO BE 5-10%
CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER LA AND VTA COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHC OVER LA
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF SBA COUNTY
WITH 557 DAM HGTS. THE LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN TO
THE ENTIRE 4 COUNTY FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT. SINCE
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT TO RECIEVE A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL FURTHER
TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE UPPER LOW AROUND LONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
EVEN IF IT DOES RAIN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHC OF A MTN SHOWER WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
DRIER NW FLOW MOVES INTO AND OVER THE STATE. SUNNIER SKIES AND
RISING TEMPS WILL BRING 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING. EVEN WITH THE
WARMING MAX TEMPS WILL END UP ABOUT 6 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
AVIATION
08/1751Z.
AT AROUND 17Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FEET DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD, AND
KWJF, WITH A 10% CHANCE OF BRIEF LIFR CONDS 13Z-17Z AT
KPRB/KVNY/KBUR.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CIGS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. MIN CIG HEIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 300 FEET AND
ARRIVAL MAY BE OFF 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE KSMX/KSBP REMAIN
ABOVE VLIFR CONDS TONIGHT. 10% CHANCE FOR 1/4SM FG AT KOXR/KCMA.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIG HEIGHTS MAY BE OFF +/- 300
FEET AND CIGS MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 06Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF WITH A 10% CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS
13Z-17Z.
MARINE
08/852 AM.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) GUSTS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN POINT
CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING DENSE FOG
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND.
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20-30
KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BECOMING MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE
ALL OF SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE
OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
LARGE, STEEP, AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS FAIRLY RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE WINDS IS DUE TO A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION AS AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST, INTERACTING WITH
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, WHICH WILL SOON TURN NORTHEAST
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER COASTLINE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IN ADDITION THE THE INCREASING GUSTY WINDS, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY-TUESDAY, WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. WHILE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE, HIGHEST CHANCES EXIST SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.
AS THIS IS A COMPLEX AND EVOLVING SITUATION, PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST.
BEACHES
08/941 AM.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY SWELLS, INCLUDING FROM TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LA/VTA COASTLINE. 160-190 DEGREES AT 12
SECONDS WILL POSE THE MOST RISK FROM MALIBU TO VENTURA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE LONG BEACH AREA IS ALSO AT A RELATIVELY HIGHER RISK
DUE TO VULNERABILITIES FROM PREVIOUS COASTAL EVENTS. THE MORNING
AND EVENING HIGH TIDES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR IN HEIGHT AT 6.5-7.0 FT
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A 0.3 FT REDUCTION IN THE EVENING TIDES ON
FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST,
LIKELY MAKING LANDFALL ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SOMEWHERE
IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE MEXICO-
UNITED STATES BORDER (POTENTIALLY AS A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM).
AS FOR IMPACTS, DEVIATIONS IN THE FINAL TRACK COULD INFLUENCE THE
MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS FOR THE AREA. IF RACHEL TAKES A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK, THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASED WIND WAVE AND
LOWER SFC PRESSURE WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER TIDES, WHICH ARE ALREADY
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET (1 TO 1.5 FEET HIGHER THAN
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES) OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS OF NOW, THE MOST REASONABLE OUTCOME FOR LA/VENTURA AND
CATALINA ISLAND IS FLOODING OF SEA-WATER OVER BEACH ROADS AND
PATHS, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGE
POSSIBLE. THE TIME WINDOW FOR MOST CONCERN IS SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST, HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR SOME BEACH EROSION AND ISOLATED, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
REFER TO CFWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS AND PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
340>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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