426
FXUS66 KLOX 081913
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1213 PM PDT THU OCT 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
08/242 AM.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE.
ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY THEY WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE RACHEL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
08/1212 PM.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN TODAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
THE COOLING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO CALIFORNIA. ALL HEAT HAZARDS WILL BE DISCONTINUED THIS
EVENING AS HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 5-10
DEGREES COOLER.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE MOVING FORWARD IS THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
THE TRACK OF RACHEL AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. SWELLS HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO ARRIVE ON OUR SOUTHERN BEACHES AND IMPACTS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LAST FEW TRACKS OF RACHEL HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH BUT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE
AT LEAST SOME TROPICAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY,
AND AROUND 10% OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOW OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. THE
MORE LIKELY OUTCOME IS AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH,
THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S, BUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RACHEL MOISTURE SO IT WILL LIKELY
FEET QUITE A BIT WARMER. ALSO, CAN'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THOUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING THOSE WILL REMAIN FARTHER EAST
AND SOUTH.
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH LINGERING TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
08/1213 PM.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF SBA COUNTY
WITH 557 DAM HGTS. THE LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN TO
THE ENTIRE 4 COUNTY FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT. SINCE
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT TO RECIEVE A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL FURTHER
TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE UPPER LOW AROUND LONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
EVEN IF IT DOES RAIN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHC OF A MTN SHOWER WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
DRIER NW FLOW MOVES INTO AND OVER THE STATE. SUNNIER SKIES AND
RISING TEMPS WILL BRING 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING. EVEN WITH THE
WARMING MAX TEMPS WILL END UP ABOUT 6 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
AVIATION
08/1751Z.
AT AROUND 17Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FEET DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD, AND
KWJF, WITH A 10% CHANCE OF BRIEF LIFR CONDS 13Z-17Z AT
KPRB/KVNY/KBUR.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CIGS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. MIN CIG HEIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 300 FEET AND
ARRIVAL MAY BE OFF 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE KSMX/KSBP REMAIN
ABOVE VLIFR CONDS TONIGHT. 10% CHANCE FOR 1/4SM FG AT KOXR/KCMA.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIG HEIGHTS MAY BE OFF +/- 300
FEET AND CIGS MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 06Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF WITH A 10% CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS
13Z-17Z.
MARINE
08/852 AM.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) GUSTS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN POINT
CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING DENSE FOG
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND.
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20-30
KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BECOMING MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE
ALL OF SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE
OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
LARGE, STEEP, AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS FAIRLY RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE WINDS IS DUE TO A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION AS AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST, INTERACTING WITH
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, WHICH WILL SOON TURN NORTHEAST
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER COASTLINE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IN ADDITION THE THE INCREASING GUSTY WINDS, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY-TUESDAY, WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. WHILE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE, HIGHEST CHANCES EXIST SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.
AS THIS IS A COMPLEX AND EVOLVING SITUATION, PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST.
BEACHES
08/941 AM.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY SWELLS, INCLUDING FROM TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LA/VTA COASTLINE. 160-190 DEGREES AT 12
SECONDS WILL POSE THE MOST RISK FROM MALIBU TO VENTURA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE LONG BEACH AREA IS ALSO AT A RELATIVELY HIGHER RISK
DUE TO VULNERABILITIES FROM PREVIOUS COASTAL EVENTS. THE MORNING
AND EVENING HIGH TIDES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR IN HEIGHT AT 6.5-7.0 FT
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A 0.3 FT REDUCTION IN THE EVENING TIDES ON
FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST,
LIKELY MAKING LANDFALL ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SOMEWHERE
IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE MEXICO-
UNITED STATES BORDER (POTENTIALLY AS A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM).
AS FOR IMPACTS, DEVIATIONS IN THE FINAL TRACK COULD INFLUENCE THE
MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS FOR THE AREA. IF RACHEL TAKES A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK, THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASED WIND WAVE AND
LOWER SFC PRESSURE WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER TIDES, WHICH ARE ALREADY
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET (1 TO 1.5 FEET HIGHER THAN
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES) OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS OF NOW, THE MOST REASONABLE OUTCOME FOR LA/VENTURA AND
CATALINA ISLAND IS FLOODING OF SEA-WATER OVER BEACH ROADS AND
PATHS, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGE
POSSIBLE. THE TIME WINDOW FOR MOST CONCERN IS SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST, HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR SOME BEACH EROSION AND ISOLATED, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
REFER TO CFWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS AND PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
340>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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