486
FXUS66 KLOX 082102
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
202 PM PDT THU OCT 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
08/242 AM.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE.
ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY THEY WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE RACHEL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
08/1212 PM.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN TODAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
THE COOLING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO CALIFORNIA. ALL HEAT HAZARDS WILL BE DISCONTINUED THIS
EVENING AS HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 5-10
DEGREES COOLER.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE MOVING FORWARD IS THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
THE TRACK OF RACHEL AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. SWELLS HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO ARRIVE ON OUR SOUTHERN BEACHES AND IMPACTS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LAST FEW TRACKS OF RACHEL HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH BUT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE
AT LEAST SOME TROPICAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY,
AND AROUND 10% OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOW OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. THE
MORE LIKELY OUTCOME IS AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH,
THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S, BUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RACHEL MOISTURE SO IT WILL LIKELY
FEET QUITE A BIT WARMER. ALSO, CAN'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THOUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING THOSE WILL REMAIN FARTHER EAST
AND SOUTH.
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH LINGERING TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
08/1213 PM.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF SBA COUNTY
WITH 557 DAM HGTS. THE LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN TO
THE ENTIRE 4 COUNTY FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT. SINCE
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT TO RECIEVE A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL FURTHER
TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE UPPER LOW AROUND LONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
EVEN IF IT DOES RAIN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHC OF A MTN SHOWER WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
DRIER NW FLOW MOVES INTO AND OVER THE STATE. SUNNIER SKIES AND
RISING TEMPS WILL BRING 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING. EVEN WITH THE
WARMING MAX TEMPS WILL END UP ABOUT 6 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
AVIATION
08/1751Z.
AT AROUND 17Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FEET DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD, AND
KWJF, WITH A 10% CHANCE OF BRIEF LIFR CONDS 13Z-17Z AT
KPRB/KVNY/KBUR.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CIGS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. MIN CIG HEIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 300 FEET AND
ARRIVAL MAY BE OFF 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE KSMX/KSBP REMAIN
ABOVE VLIFR CONDS TONIGHT. 10% CHANCE FOR 1/4SM FG AT KOXR/KCMA.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIG HEIGHTS MAY BE OFF +/- 300
FEET AND CIGS MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 06Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF WITH A 10% CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS
13Z-17Z.
MARINE
08/140 PM.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) GUSTS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN POINT
CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING DENSE FOG
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BECOMING MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE ALL OF
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
LARGE, STEEP, AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS FAIRLY RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS IS DUE TO A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST,
INTERACTING WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, WHICH WILL
SOON TURN NORTHEAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER
COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PROJECTED TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, MOST LIKELY MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
IN ADDITION THE THE INCREASING GUSTY WINDS, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. WHILE RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE, HIGHEST CHANCES EXIST SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION.
AS THIS IS A COMPLEX AND EVOLVING SITUATION, PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST.
BEACHES
08/201 PM.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, WHILE A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT (BHS) IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND
THE CENTRAL COAST.
A VERY COMPLEX SERIES OF SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH, WEST, AND
NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT OUR COASTLINES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
SWELLS, NORTHWEST SWELLS, AND LOCAL WIND SWELLS WILL ADD UP WITH
EACH OTHER TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT
TIMES. EXTREMELY HIGH TIDES WILL BE COMMON EACH MORNING, PEAKING
BETWEEN 6.8 TO 7.6 FEET MLLW, HIGHEST FURTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY
SECONDARY HIGH TIDES WILL PEAK EACH EVENING, LIKELY MOST IMPACTFUL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TIDES REACHING 5.5 TO 6.5 FEET MLLW.
WHILE EACH DAY UNDER THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES OR BHS SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY SIMILAR IMPACTS, SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED
IMPACTS. RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE
COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, CREATING A WIND SWELL AS WELL AS
ELEVATING TIDES SLIGHTLY. ADDITIONALLY IF ONE OF THE INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARRIVES TO OUR WATERS SUNDAY, WATER LEVELS WILL
ALSO INCREASE. IF ALL THESE INGREDIENTS OVERLAP ON SUNDAY, A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WILL BE LIKELY. THIS IS A VERY
NARROW WINDOW, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A TARGETED COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING TO BE ISSUED IN SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY IF ALL
FACTORS LINE UP.
AS THIS IS A COMPLEX AND EVOLVING SITUATION, PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
340>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 340-346-349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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