591
FXUS66 KLOX 092101
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
201 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WILL SEND UPDATED MARINE/BEACHES SECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
09/200 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL REGION WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY, BUT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER WARM UP WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
09/200 PM.
FURTHER COOLING WITH RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS AND A DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY, THEN A MUCH MORE INTERESTING
PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL KICK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
FIRST OF ALL, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES. WHILE WE WILL NOT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
RACHEL IN OUR AREA, WE WILL STILL SOME IMPACTS RELATED TO
RACHEL'S INFLUENCE. ON SATURDAY A WEAK UPPER LOW AROUND 500 NM
MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH, PULLING IN MOSITURE FROM RACHEL. PERIODS OF STEADY TO
SHOWERY RAIN ARE LIKELY AS SOON AS SATURDAY EVENING SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION, BUT AT THIS POINT THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ACROSS LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE BULK OF MOISTURE.
THERE IS SOME SENSITIVITY IN TERMS OF PEAK TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES,
BUT BEST CHANCES EXIST FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, CHANCES EXIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A LOW (5-10% CHANCE) OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN LA COUNTY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BREEZY ONSHORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY, BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS
LOOK TO BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
A SECOND, MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DROP DOWN
THOUGH COASTAL CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR INLAND OF CALIFORNIA AND AND HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TRACK, BUT WE HAVE GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA HAS EXPERIENCED IN QUITE SOME TIME. WE ALSO ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF RAIN FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING RAIN TOTALS AND INTENSITY, BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THAT WE WILL SEE FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY
SYSTEM. PWATS DECREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY TO
0.8 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR LOS ANGELES. HOWEVER, IF THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS (AND RATES ESPECIALLY OVER TERRAIN) FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE AGAIN IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW THERE MAY BE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY WIND
HEADLINES.
FOR RAIN TOTALS FOR BOTH DAYS OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS BETWEEN 0.25
AND 1.0 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. WE'RE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FRESHWATER
FLOODING AT THIS POINT, BUT SOME AREAS OF MINOR ROADWAY FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY GOING TO COME
FROM THE COASTAL FLOODING SIDE OF THINGS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH
FACING BEACHES IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. PLEASE REFER TO OUR MARINE
DISCUSSION AND OUR CFWLOX PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
09/200 PM.
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED. THEN THERE IS SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY. WE WILL THEN DRY OUT AND
LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL MORE OR
LESS BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS WE ENTER A PRETTY RAPID WARMING
TREND WHICH WILL BECOMING MORE APPARENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE (NEAR 590 DAM) BUILDS IN AND OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP. WHILE THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES REGARDING THE
OFFSHORE FLOW, THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA
ANA WIND EVENT.
AVIATION
09/1906Z.
AT 1722Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KWJF AND KPMD. FOR ALL OTHER SITES, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS AS TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES THROUGH
THE PERIOD COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS, AND THERE IS
A 20-40% CHANCE THAT CIGS MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WHERE THEY ARE
FORECAST.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS, AND THERE IS A
20% OF ONLY A FEW HOURS IF ANY OF CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF
BKN002-10 CIGS FORMING BETWEEN 10Z-15Z SAT.
MARINE
09/840 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A
50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS) WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
SUNDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS EXCEPT FOR A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ON TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY. THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. WHILE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE, HIGHEST CHANCES
EXIST SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
BEACHES
09/843 AM.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, WHILE A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT (BHS) IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND
THE CENTRAL COAST.
A VERY COMPLEX SERIES OF SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH, WEST, AND
NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT OUR COASTLINES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
SWELLS, NORTHWEST SWELLS, AND LOCAL WIND SWELLS WILL ADD UP WITH
EACH OTHER TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT
TIMES. EXTREMELY HIGH TIDES WILL BE COMMON EACH MORNING, PEAKING
BETWEEN 6.8 TO 7.6 FEET MLLW, HIGHEST FURTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY
SECONDARY HIGH TIDES WILL PEAK EACH EVENING, LIKELY MOST IMPACTFUL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TIDES REACHING 5.5 TO 6.5 FEET MLLW.
WHILE EACH DAY UNDER THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES OR BHS SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY SIMILAR IMPACTS, SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED
IMPACTS. RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE COASTAL
FLOODING POTENTIAL, CREATING A WIND SWELL AS WELL AS ELEVATING
TIDES SLIGHTLY. ADDITIONALLY, IF LOWER PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION, WATER LEVELS COULD RISE, ADDING TO THE COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERN IN SOUTHERN LA COUNTY. IF ALL THESE INGREDIENTS OVERLAP
ON SUNDAY, A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THIS IS A VERY NARROW WINDOW, BUT THERE IS A LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCE FOR A TARGETED COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO BE ISSUED
IN SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY IF ALL FACTORS LINE UP.
AS THIS IS A COMPLEX AND EVOLVING SITUATION, PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 87-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWIS
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...RAT/LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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