553
FXUS66 KLOX 100347
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
847 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
09/200 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL REGION WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY, BUT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER WARM UP WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
09/812 PM.
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTING TO SHOW TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO A NEARBY
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DIFFLUENT AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF LOS
ANGELES. WHILE WE WILL NOT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM RACHEL IN OUR
AREA, WE WILL STILL SOME IMPACTS RELATED TO RACHEL'S INFLUENCE.
ON SATURDAY A WEAK UPPER LOW AROUND 500 NM MILES SOUTHWEST OF
POINT CONCEPTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH, PULLING IN
MOSITURE FROM RACHEL ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES. AS THIS MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH SOME ENHANCED VORTICITY
AREAS ON SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SHIFTING INTO OUR
REGION, AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY, HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWER FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY MORNING, THEN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS
COASTAL/LAND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION QPF/REFLECTIVITY OUTPUTS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
THERE IS SOME SENSITIVITY IN TERMS OF PEAK TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES, BUT BEST CHANCES EXIST FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, CHANCES EXIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW (5-10% CHANCE) OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN LA
COUNTY DURING THIS PERIOD. BREEZY ONSHORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY, BUT AT THIS POINT
WINDS LOOK TO BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
A SECOND, MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DROP DOWN
THOUGH COASTAL CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR INLAND OF CALIFORNIA AND AND HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TRACK, BUT WE HAVE GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA HAS EXPERIENCED IN QUITE SOME TIME. WE ALSO ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF RAIN FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING RAIN TOTALS AND INTENSITY, BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THAT WE WILL SEE FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY
SYSTEM. PWATS DECREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY TO
0.8 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR LOS ANGELES. HOWEVER, IF THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS (AND RATES ESPECIALLY OVER TERRAIN) FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE AGAIN IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW THERE MAY BE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY WIND
HEADLINES.
FOR RAIN TOTALS FOR BOTH DAYS OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS BETWEEN 0.25
AND 1.0 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. WE'RE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FRESHWATER
FLOODING AT THIS POINT, BUT SOME AREAS OF MINOR ROADWAY FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY GOING TO COME
FROM THE COASTAL FLOODING SIDE OF THINGS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH
FACING BEACHES IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. PLEASE REFER TO OUR MARINE
DISCUSSION AND OUR CFWLOX PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
09/200 PM.
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED. THEN THERE IS SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY. WE WILL THEN DRY OUT AND
LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL MORE OR
LESS BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS WE ENTER A PRETTY RAPID WARMING
TREND WHICH WILL BECOMING MORE APPARENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE (NEAR 590 DAM) BUILDS IN AND OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP. WHILE THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES REGARDING THE
OFFSHORE FLOW, THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA
ANA WIND EVENT.
AVIATION
10/0000Z.
AT 1722Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KWJF AND KPMD. FOR ALL OTHER SITES, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS AS TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES THROUGH
THE PERIOD COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS, AND THERE IS
A 20-40% CHANCE THAT CIGS MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WHERE THEY ARE
FORECAST.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS, AND THERE IS A
20% OF ONLY A FEW HOURS IF ANY OF CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
BKN002-10 CIGS FORMING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SAT.
MARINE
09/840 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A
50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS) WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
SUNDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS EXCEPT FOR A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ON TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY. THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. WHILE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE, HIGHEST CHANCES
EXIST SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
BEACHES
09/846 PM.
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES OF LOS
ANGELES COUNTY (INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST AND CATALINA ISLAND),
IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM SUNDAY. HIGHEST IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FOR
VULNERABLE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY LONG BEACH AND MALIBU,
AND DAMAGING SEA-WATER FLOODING OF STRUCTURES AND BEACH ROADWAYS
IS LIKELY NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 7.3 AND 7.5 FEET THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIVE FACTORS TO THE WATER LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS SOME COMPUTER
MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE SHOWING LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE VALUES
(SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 995 AND 1005 MB) DUE TO RACHEL PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST, AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED SOUTHWEST
TO WEST ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE TIME OF
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THESE
ADDITIVE FACTORS DUE TO THE TIMING OF RACHEL'S TRACK IN RELATION
TO THE HIGH TIDES ON SUNDAY MORNING. BUT WE CAN EXPECT WATER
LEVELS TO BE AT LEAST 7.3 TO 7.5 FEET ACROSS LA COUNTY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER LEVELS TO
REACH 8 FEET IF THE LOW PRESSURE/ONSHORE WIND COMPONENTS
MATERIALIZE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE. AS A RESULT, SUNDAY HAS THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR DAMAGING COASTAL FLOODING (ESPECIALLY LONG BEACH
AND MALIBU AREAS). THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MAY BE EXTENDED PAST
SUNDAY, OR CONVERTED TO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH SURF OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH STRONG/DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR BEACHES FROM VENTURA COUNTY NORTHWARD, MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AS WELL AS
PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF RACHEL, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20
PERCENT) THAT VENTURA COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. PLEASE SEE CFWLOX FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
A VERY COMPLEX SERIES OF SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH, WEST, AND
NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT OUR COASTLINES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
SWELLS, NORTHWEST SWELLS, AND LOCAL WIND SWELLS WILL ADD UP WITH
EACH OTHER TO PRODUCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL IMPACTS.PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 87-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM PDT SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM PDT SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/LEWIS
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD/GOMBERG
MARINE...RAT/LEWIS
BEACHES...GOMBERG/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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