364
FXUS66 KLOX 101619
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
919 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
10/749 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL REGION WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY, BUT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
STEADY RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WARM UP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
10/737 AM.
***UPDATE***
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF
LOS ANGELES.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, MOSTLY VIRGA ARE DREAMING OVER AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, AND WHILE THERE ARE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS NOW, WE'RE STILL EXPECTING THE MORE MODERATE AND
STEADIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR FROM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE MOSITURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM RACHEL WILL BE PULLED IN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT
300-400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS STILL EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY EASTERN VENTURA COUNTY.
THEN THE SECOND, COLDER UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO CALIFORNIA,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN IS LIKELY.
A 5-10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.
AS FOR RAIN TOTALS AND RATES, THE VALUES BELOW ARE STILL ON TRACK.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA IS INDICATING
THAT SOME HOURLY RAIN RATES IN THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS
MAY SLIGHTLY EXCEED 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR, BUT STILL EXPECTING
RATES TO REMAIN BELOW ANY BURN SCAR THRESHOLDS. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. AT THIS
POINT, STILL NOT SEEING ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF FLOOD
WATCHES IN OUR AREA.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OVERALL, 00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. MAIN FEATURES OF CONCERN WILL BE A COUPLE OF UPPER
LOWS DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS TROPICAL STORM
RACHEL. WITH RESPECT TO TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, IT WILL CONTINUE
TRACK FAR SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY.
WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN, MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES. THE FIRST UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION, WILL INTERACT WITH RACHEL LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING, BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME, THE BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS LA
COUNTY WITH CHANCES/AMOUNTS DECREASING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SECOND LOW,
BUT ANY MODEL SOLUTION CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR ALL AREAS.
SOME DETAILS TO NOTE:
- PWAT ANOMALIES, ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM RACHEL, WILL
BE 150-300% OF NORMAL.
- PWAT ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY.
- THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A 5-10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY.
- TOTALS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
- LA COUNTY: GENERALLY 0.25-1.00 INCHES EXCEPT 1.50-2.50
INCHES OVER THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS.
- VENTURA COUNTY: GENERALLY 0.10-0.50 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
- SBA/SLO COUNTIES: GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 INCHES.
- RAINFALL RATES: GENERALLY UNDER 0.25"/HOUR, BUT LOCAL RATES
UP TO AROUND 0.50"/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LA COUNTY.
- LA COUNTY IS UNDER MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
A SECONDARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WINDS, SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD WIND
GUSTS, AROUND ADVISORY-LEVELS. ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE LA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS ELSEWHERE ON
SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY IN MANY AREAS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
AS HAS BEEN STRESSED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, ANY CHANGES IN THE
TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL COULD BRING NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. SO, STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
10/233 AM.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODELS ARE ON THE SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PAGE, INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS AND A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SOMEWHERE IN/OVER
THE AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE
MAIN REASON FOR THE WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR ACTUAL
WINDS, THE FORECAST GRADIENTS AND FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL LIKELY GENERATE A WEAK SANTA ANA WIND EVENT THURSDAY/FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF A MODERATE EVENT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
10/0932Z.
AT 0900Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 600 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD AND KWJF.
FOR ALL OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAFS. FOR SITES
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES
COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST. FOR SITES SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION, HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD ARE MAKING FOR A CHAOTIC STRATUS
PATTERN. SO, TIMING OF ANY ARRIVAL OR DISSIPATION OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS 12Z-19Z. TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS 12Z-19Z. TIMING OF SHOWERS TONIGHT COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS
OF CURRENT FORECAST.
MARINE
10/919 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF AT LEAST SCA LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD, HOWEVER LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS TODAY, POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY,
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING,
THEN THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT WINDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, STEEP SEAS OF 10+ FEET WILL
BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ON
TUESDAY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THIS MORNING. FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY,
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS) WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL WINDS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WITH A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY. THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. WHILE SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE, HIGHEST CHANCES EXIST
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE WEST AND THE SOUTH ARE AFFECTING THE
COASTAL WATERS, AND CAN CREATE A CONFUSED SEA STATE. THIS CAN
MAKE BOATING MORE CHALLENGING AND DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL
VESSELS.
BEACHES
10/918 AM.
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES OF LOS
ANGELES COUNTY (INCLUDING THE MALIBU COAST AND CATALINA ISLAND)
THROUGH 3 PM SUNDAY. HIGHEST IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FOR VULNERABLE
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY LONG BEACH AND MALIBU, WITH
DAMAGING SEA-WATER FLOODING OF STRUCTURES AND BEACH ROADWAYS
LIKELY NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 7.3 AND 7.5 FEET THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIVE FACTORS TO THE WATER LEVELS
ON SUNDAY AS SOME COMPUTER MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE SHOWING LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE VALUES (SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 995 AND 1005 MB)
DUE TO RACHEL PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED SOUTHWEST TO WEST ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE TIME OF SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THESE ADDITIVE FACTORS DUE TO THE
TIMING OF RACHEL'S TRACK IN RELATION TO THE HIGH TIDES ON SUNDAY
MORNING. BUT WE CAN EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO BE AT LEAST 7.3 TO 7.5
FEET ACROSS LA COUNTY DURING THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER LEVELS TO REACH 8 FEET IF THE LOW
PRESSURE/ONSHORE WIND COMPONENTS MATERIALIZE NEAR TIME OF HIGH
TIDE.
AS A RESULT, SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHEST RISK FOR DAMAGING COASTAL
FLOODING (ESPECIALLY LONG BEACH AND MALIBU AREAS). THE COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING MAY BE EXTENDED PAST SUNDAY, OR CONVERTED TO A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH SURF OF 5 TO 8 FEET
IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, ALONG
WITH STRONG/DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR BEACHES FROM VENTURA COUNTY NORTHWARD, MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AS WELL AS
PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF RACHEL, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20
PERCENT) THAT VENTURA COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. PLEASE SEE CFWLOX FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
A VERY COMPLEX SERIES OF SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH, WEST, AND
NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT OUR COASTLINES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
SWELLS, NORTHWEST SWELLS, AND LOCAL WIND SWELLS WILL ADD UP WITH
EACH OTHER TO PRODUCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL IMPACTS. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 87-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...LEWIS/THOMPSON
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT/KL
BEACHES...GOMBERG/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page