252
FXUS66 KLOX 110416
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
916 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
10/724 PM.
MODERATE TO DAMAGING COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING AN DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
10/755 PM.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COASTAL
FLOODING RISKS. PLEASE REFER TO BEACHES SECTION BELOW AS WELL AS
CFWLOX FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF
LOS ANGELES. A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DROP FROM THE
NORTH AND INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FROM RACHEL. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, AS WELL AS PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ON
SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FOUR COUNTY AREA, BUT
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAIN IS VERY LIKELY EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY.
MINOR RAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, FOCUSED THE SLICK ROADS THAT
MIGHT HAVE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF MINOR FLOODING. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. WHILE THE HEART OF THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM RACHEL WILL STAY EAST OF LOS
ANGELES COUNTY, SEVERAL MODEL PROJECTIONS WOBBLE ENOUGH OF THE
EDGE OF THE PLUME TO PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE
SAN GABRIELS, WITH PEAK HOURLY RATES AROUND 0.5 INCHES PER HOUR.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME CONCERNS FROM A MUDSLIDE OR TWO
IN THE MOUNTAIN ROADS AND CANYONS, AS WELL AS PRODUCING SHALLOW
DEBRIS FLOWS OVER THE SUMMIT BURN SCAR. THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP
AND EYE ON.
AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED, IT APPEARS THE MAJORITY
OF OUR RAINFALL TOTALS WILL COME FROM THE "FIRST" SYSTEM FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DETAILS ON THE RAIN
ARE BELOW.
WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP UPTICK IN
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN SOUTH. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY, WITH GUSTIEST WINDS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BRING A RELIEF TO MANY AFTER A
LONG STRETCH OF VERY HOT WEATHER.
SOME DETAILS TO NOTE:
- PWAT ANOMALIES, ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM RACHEL, WILL
BE 150-300% OF NORMAL.
- PWATS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY.
- THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A 5-10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY.
- RAIN TOTALS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
- LA COUNTY: GENERALLY 0.25-1.00 INCHES EXCEPT 1.50-2.50
INCHES OVER THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS (LOCALLY 3.00).
- VENTURA COUNTY: GENERALLY 0.10-0.50 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
- SBA/SLO COUNTIES: GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 INCHES.
- RAINFALL RATES: GENERALLY UNDER 0.25"/HOUR, BUT LOCAL RATES
UP TO AROUND 0.50"/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LA COUNTY.
SOME RECENT HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME RATES
IN THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS MAY SLIGHTLY EXCEED
0.50"/HOUR.
- LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES ARE UNDER MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
AS HAS BEEN STRESSED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, ANY CHANGES IN THE
TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL COULD BRING NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. SO, STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
10/1054 AM.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE OR LESS BE A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE
COOLER, ACTIVE PATTERN TO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WHICH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND BY THURSDAY WE COULD SEE 500
MB HEIGHTS REACH 585-590 DAM. OFFSHORE FLOW IS ALSO POISED TO
DEVELOP AND THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING THIS RAPID
WARMING AND DRYING TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEAT RISK IS LIKELY FOR THE COASTS AND COASTAL VALLEYS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW CHANCES OF MAJOR HEAT RISK. THE
MAGNITUDE OF TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE OFFSHORE FLOW, BUT A WEAK TO AT LEAST LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA
ANA WIND EVENT IS LIKELY.
AVIATION
11/0415Z.
AT 0400Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NEITHER A MARINE LAYER NOR A MARINE
INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO ALL SITES AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY WITH
LESSER CHANCES NORTH AND WEST. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 5-10%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS IN THE 15Z-02Z TIME FRAME. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8 KNOTS THROUGH 22Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS IN THE 15Z-02Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE
10/756 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF AT LEAST SCA LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE WATERS NEAR AND
NW OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, STEEP SEAS OF 10+ FEET WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST OF SCA WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SCA CONDS AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING, WITH A 30-50%
CHANCE.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL WITH A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE, THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXIST
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE WEST AND THE SOUTH ARE AFFECTING THE
COASTAL WATERS, AND CAN CREATE A CONFUSED SEA STATE. THIS CAN
MAKE BOATING MORE CHALLENGING AND DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL
VESSELS.
BEACHES
10/805 PM.
EARLIER THIS MORNING, LA HARBOR TIDE GAUGE REPORTED A PEAK OF 7.7
FEET, APPROXIMATELY 1.6 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES.
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES OF LOS
ANGELES COUNTY (INCLUDING LONG BEACH, THE MALIBU COAST AND
CATALINA ISLAND) THROUGH 3 PM SUNDAY. DAMAGING SEA-WATER COASTAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SUNDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE WHERE ANTICIPATED TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 8 FEET. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR DAMAGING COASTAL FLOODING
ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE VULNERABLE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES DUE TO
THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF VERY HIGH TIDES AROUND 8 FEET
(INCLUDING ADDITIVE EFFECT OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AND ONSHORE
WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 MPH), HIGH SURF OF 5 TO 8 FEET, AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE
EXPECTED COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR VULNERABLE
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LA COUNTY COULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON, INCLUDING THOSE SEEN WITH MARIE.
FOR ALL OTHER BEACHES AND HARBORS OF LA COUNTY, MINOR TO
MODERATE SEA- WATER FLOODING WILL LIKELY IMPACT BEACHES AND
WALKWAYS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WHICH COULD
CAUSE LOCAL DAMAGE TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
VENICE AND LONG BEACH. FOR ALL BEACH AREAS, SIGNIFICANT EROSION
IS EXPECTED. THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF OCEAN DROWNING.
DANGEROUS AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CAN PULL SWIMMERS AND
SURFERS OUT TO SEA. LARGE BREAKING WAVES CAN CAUSE INJURY, WASH
PEOPLE OFF BEACHES AND ROCKS, AND CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS NEAR SHORE.
THE PROJECTED HIGH TIDES OF AROUND 8 FEET FOR SUNDAY MORNING WOULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED RECENT RECORD TIDE LEVELS FOR LA COUNTY. LARGE
SECONDARY HIGH TIDES ARE ALSO EXPECTED EACH EVENING.
FOR BEACHES FROM VENTURA COUNTY NORTHWARD, MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AS WELL AS
PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR VENTURA COUNTY,
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COAST. FOR VENTURA COUNTY, THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED DAMAGE ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
SEA SPRAY AND AND WATER ON SECTIONS OF PCH BETWEEN POINT MUGU AND
SYCAMORE COVE.
A VERY COMPLEX SERIES OF SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH, WEST, AND
NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT OUR COASTLINES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
SWELLS, NORTHWEST SWELLS, AND LOCAL WIND SWELLS WILL ADD UP WITH
EACH OTHER TO PRODUCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL IMPACTS. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 87-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 87-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM
PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346-349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR ZONES 378>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RK/BL/RAT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...CILIBERTI
BEACHES...GOMBERG/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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