097
FXUS66 KLOX 112139
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
239 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
11/238 PM.
MODERATE TO DAMAGING COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
11/236 PM.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL LARGELY MOVED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LEFTOVER IN L.A. COUNTY. OTHERWISE, PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES COVERED MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER L.A. COUNTY. GUSTY SW WINDS
INCREASED OVER THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND DESERTS AS WELL, AND THERE
IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS
TURNED COOLER WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEG BLO NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST COAST AND VLYS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THIS AFTERNOON.
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO CA TONIGHT AND MON. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA ALONG
WITH PRODUCING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, AND EVEN LIKELY SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEEP MOIST LAYER. ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND VLYS, EXCEPT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
L.A. COUNTY INCLUDING THE MTNS. HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS COULD EVEN
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
A DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
TUE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WELL E OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE E PAC INTO WED WHICH
WILL HELP TO BRING INCREASING N TO NE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT, STRONG AND GUSTY NE WINDS ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY WED MORNING IN THE USUAL SANTA ANA WIND
CORRIDORS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES, WHEN WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-20 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON MON, THEN A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THRU WED WHEN HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
11/237 PM.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NRN CA THRU SAT WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS S OF THIS HIGH OVER NRN BAJA OR JUST OFF
THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A BROAD E TO NE FLOW ALOFT OVER SWRN CA.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER CA DEVELOPING.
OVERALL, SWRN CA WILL SEE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS EACH DAY ACROSS VENTURA/LA COUNTIES AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SANTA ANA
WIND CORRIDORS ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT.
TEMPS WILL WARM TO AS MUCH AS 10-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION BY FRI WHEN HIGHS IN THE WARMEST VLYS AND COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 90S.
AVIATION
11/1834Z.
AT 1753Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NEITHER A MARINE LAYER NOR A MARINE
INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AT ALL SITES. THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, THERE WILL BE 30-40% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL
SITES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS ANYTIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ANYTIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
11/224 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. ON TUESDAY,
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, ESPECIALLY AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS OF 10+ FEET
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH THIS EVENING, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS THEN
DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH THIS EVENING, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS, THEN DIMINISHING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR
MOST AREA, BUT THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THURSDAY, THERE IS A 30-40%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA
MONICA.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY,
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. WHILE SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE, THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXIST
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE WEST AND THE SOUTH ARE AFFECTING THE
COASTAL WATERS, AND CAN CREATE A CONFUSED SEA STATE. THIS CAN
MAKE BOATING MORE CHALLENGING AND DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL
VESSELS.
BEACHES
11/222 PM.
WHILE THE PEAK TIMING FOR THE MOST IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING HAS
PASSED, THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY, DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH TIDES AND
ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
MORNINGS AND RANGE FROM 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
SECONDARY HIGH TIDES DURING THE EVENINGS (AROUND 6 FEET TONIGHT
DECREASING TO 5 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING). AS FOR ELEVATED SURF, A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND SLOWLY
SUBSIDE FURTHER EACH DAY.
ALL COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES, WITH THE ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST CONTINUING
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING, AND THE REST OF THE COASTS CONTINUING UNTIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES VENTURA AND LA COASTAL
BEACHES (SURF 5-8 FEET) CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WHILE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES (SURF
8-12 FEET) CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL, AND IS DUE TO ELEVATED SURF AND MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW DURING HIGH TIDES (LINGERING AFTER THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY EXPIRES).
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND REFER TO THE COASTAL
HAZARD PRODUCT (CFWLOX) FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346-349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
378>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...KL
MARINE...RAT/KL
BEACHES...KL
SYNOPSIS...RAT/RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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