002
FXUS66 KLOX 120349
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
849 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
11/345 PM.
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY CONTINUE TO THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
11/849 PM.
***UPDATE***
STILL SEEING SOME EFFECTS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGING
COLDER AIR AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS, GENERALLY AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.50
INCHES EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL ARE OFF
TO THE EAST, BUT SOME MOISTURE LINGERS SUPPORTING THESE SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE COOL TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S TO 70S, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING
EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
GUSTY SW WINDS INCREASED OVER THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND DESERTS
AS WELL, AND THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS TURNED COOLER WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEG BLO
NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. MOST COAST AND VLYS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO CA TONIGHT AND MON. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA ALONG
WITH PRODUCING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, AND EVEN LIKELY SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEEP MOIST LAYER. ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND VLYS, EXCEPT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER
L.A. COUNTY INCLUDING THE MTNS. HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS COULD EVEN
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
A DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
TUE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WELL E OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE E PAC INTO WED WHICH
WILL HELP TO BRING INCREASING N TO NE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT, STRONG AND GUSTY NE WINDS ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY WED MORNING IN THE USUAL SANTA ANA WIND
CORRIDORS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES, WHEN WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-20 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON MON, THEN A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THRU WED WHEN HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
11/237 PM.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NRN CA THRU SAT WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS S OF THIS HIGH OVER NRN BAJA OR JUST OFF
THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A BROAD E TO NE FLOW ALOFT OVER SWRN CA.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER CA DEVELOPING.
OVERALL, SWRN CA WILL SEE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS EACH DAY ACROSS VENTURA/LA COUNTIES AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SANTA ANA
WIND CORRIDORS ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT.
TEMPS WILL WARM TO AS MUCH AS 10-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION BY FRI WHEN HIGHS IN THE WARMEST VLYS AND COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 90S.
AVIATION
12/0233Z.
AT 00Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NEITHER A MARINE LAYER NOR A MARINE
INVERSION. A MOIST LAYER WAS PRESENT AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FEET.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. THERE IS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AT ALL SITES, BUT HIGHER CHANCES FOR LA COAST AND VALLEY
TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE 30-40% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ANYTIME
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS ANYTIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
11/813 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH CONFIDENCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL SEAS BUT WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS
EXCEPT FOR NEAR POINT CONCEPTION IN ZONE PZZ673. ON TUESDAY,
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, AGAIN MAINLY AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS OF 10+ FEET
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS ARE BELOW SCA LEVELS BUT
SCA SEAS OF 10+ FEET ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXCEPT A 50% CHANCE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA LEVELS,
BUT CHOPPY SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR MOST AREA, BUT THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE
THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY,
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. WHILE SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE, THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXIST
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE WEST AND THE SOUTH ARE AFFECTING THE
COASTAL WATERS, AND CAN CREATE A CONFUSED SEA STATE. THIS CAN
MAKE BOATING MORE CHALLENGING AND DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL
VESSELS.
BEACHES
11/222 PM.
WHILE THE PEAK TIMING FOR THE MOST IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING HAS
PASSED, THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY, DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH TIDES AND
ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
MORNINGS AND RANGE FROM 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
SECONDARY HIGH TIDES DURING THE EVENINGS (AROUND 6 FEET TONIGHT
DECREASING TO 5 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING). AS FOR ELEVATED SURF, A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND SLOWLY
SUBSIDE FURTHER EACH DAY.
ALL COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES, WITH THE ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST CONTINUING
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING, AND THE REST OF THE COASTS CONTINUING UNTIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES VENTURA AND LA COASTAL
BEACHES (SURF 5-8 FEET) CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WHILE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES (SURF
8-12 FEET) CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL, AND IS DUE TO ELEVATED SURF AND MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW DURING HIGH TIDES (LINGERING AFTER THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY EXPIRES).
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND REFER TO THE COASTAL
HAZARD PRODUCT (CFWLOX) FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346-349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
378>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/SIRARD
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
MARINE...CILIBERTI
BEACHES...KL
SYNOPSIS...CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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