097
FNUS73 KLSX 121447
FWSLSX
SPOT FORECAST FOR DEAD TREE SAVANNA #1...MO DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
847 AM CST THU DEC 12 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CST ON DECEMBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THE GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES GIVEN A
SLOW MOVING FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
THIS FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH MAY MEAN THAT
TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET AS WARM TODAY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THERE IS A HIGH OF 46 FORECAST TODAY, THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
AND CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED MAY CAUSE
HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S. IF THIS OCCURS,
MIXING HEIGHTS MAY ONLY STAY AROUND 1,300-1,500 FT. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MAY ALSO CAUSE WIND DIRECTION TO BE MORE VARIABLE
THAN INDICATED. IF THE FRONT IS ABLE TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER HE
BURN SITE, THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT
IS NOT ABLE TO DO SO, THEN WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE.
SKIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY TONIGHT, WITH WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION BEING UNCERTAIN FOR THE SAME REASONS AS TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAT THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TOMORROW, WITH WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 50 BENEATH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........22 AT IGNITION...MAX 46.
RH..................77 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH
BECOMING AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH OR LESS. ADJUSTMENT FACTOR
OF 0.4 USED.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE MAX 2900 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /1680 M/S-M/ AT IGNITION. MAX...MARGINAL
/5580 M/S-M/.
TIME (CST) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM
SKY (%).........40 38 6 3 9 21
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............22 33 36 45 41 36
RH..............77 53 59 47 57 67
20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 7 S 7 S 6 SE 6 E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.8 12 13 11 10 9
EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 3 SE 3 S 3 S 3 SE 3 E 3
EYE LVL WND GST.4 6 6 5 5 4
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 2.2 2.7 2.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 9 S 14 S 15 S 9 E 8 E 8
HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE KT-FT/1K..11 26 36 21 4 4
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 25.
RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AT 5 MPH OR LESS LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.4 USED.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 6 TO
7 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (550 M/S-M).
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 50.
RH..................MIN 48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY
IN THE MORNING.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH OR LESS
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 13
TO 14 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (740 M/S-M).
FORECASTER...ELMORE
REQUESTED BY...MARY CROWELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2428437.0/LSX
.DELDT 12/12/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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