589
FXUS63 KLSX 160924
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
324 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
- THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE (60-70%) ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS EXPANDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN A STRONG BAND OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE BANDS OF
SHOWERS AS THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING MUCAPES OF 500-
1000+ J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. RECENT RUNS OF
THE CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT RAIN WILL EXPAND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF I-44 IN MO AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN IL BEFORE THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA LATER THIS
MORNING. UNTIL THEN, THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE
AREA WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH RAINFALL AS SATURDAY'S SYSTEM, THE HREF
LPMM IS SHOWING UP TO 1" OF RAINFALL OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA. THE HREF HAS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE CWA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW.
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF
MISSOURI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
LARGE SPREAD IN HIGHS TODAY WITH 60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA COMPARED TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS TONIGHT CAUSING
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY CAUSING HIGHS TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BRITT
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LREF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT ITS HIGHEST NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOWING PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TOWARD
FREEZING LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE IT ENDS, BUT LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT OF THE LREF MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A CHANCE OF SNOW
AT UIN WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TRACK KEEPS
CHANCES OUT OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE NUMBER OF LREF
MEMBERS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AT UIN OR SPI AT LESS THAN 10
PERCENT. THE DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
TWO COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK, ONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THE
SECOND WITH THE CLIPPER ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH FRONTS WILL BRING
COOLER AIR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE 40S AND HIGHS BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE 30S.
BRITT
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
LOW STRATUS IS MAKING ITS WAY NORTH FROM THE OZARKS AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION, ALONG WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE, AND FOG
AMIDST A MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING AGAIN, THOUGH ARE HAVING TROUBLE ADVANCING
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST TAFS DELAY THE
ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KUIN AND OVERALL LOWER THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN AT THE TERMINALS. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT MOST
OF THE IMPACTFUL SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
FORM ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND TRACK SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. THAT SAID, A FEW PROB30 GROUPS REPLACED THE
PREVAILING RAIN LINES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS IS NON-ZERO.
A COLD FRONT WITH A PUNCH OF DRY AIR BEHIND IT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY, SCOURING OUT THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND QUICKLY IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CENTRAL
MISSOURI SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12-14Z, KUIN BY
14-16Z, AND THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA BY 16-18Z. BEYOND
THAT, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNSET AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MRB
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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