283
FXUS63 KLSX 181106
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
506 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
WARMING GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED OUT OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE STRONGEST ASCENT WITH THE
MID LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES LINGERING OVER THE AREA
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL TURN
LIGHT WITH THE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP BACK INTO
THE 20S. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
BRITT
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THAT TWO TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. QPF WITH THESE SYSTEMS ARE STAYING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT LREF MEMBERS PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 30S.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LREF
IS ADVERTISING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE PLAINS. CURRENTLY THE
BEST CHANCES (30-50%) WILL WAIT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER MORE MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE
GULF. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE NUMBER OF LREF MEMBERS
THAT ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION. THE NBM IQR DOES INCREASE FROM 2-
4 DEGREES LATE THIS WEEK TO TO 8-10 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH DOES INDICATE THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE
ALL RAIN AS THE NUMBER THE LREF MEMBERS PRODUCING SNOW IS NOW <10%.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
BRITT
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING BELOW 2000 FEET AGL THIS MORNING AT ALL OF THE AIRPORTS
BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 2000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND
10 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.
BRITT
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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